The National Association of REALTORS (NAR) recently published an article about short sales and how they can so easily fall apart. The full article can be read here. http://realtormag.realtor.org/daily-news/2012/10/31/why-short-sales-can-still-so-easily-fall-apart
Contrary to it's name, short sales do not equate to "short" as it relates to time. They are called "short sales" because the current value of the property is not enough to cover the cost of the outstanding mortgage(s), expenses, etc. associated with selling the property in the current market.
The problem with the short sale market is that in a majority of the cases yet today, 5 years after the bubble burst, the banks are not cooperating at a level that they would like the public to believe they are. Either it is in large part due to the investors not willing or unable to recognize that the values have adjusted that much lower. Or that they are prepared to make a claim against the mortgage insurance, unless you put 20% cash down, there is mortgage insurance. But the mortgage insurance companies are out of money to pay claims...and it makes it difficult if not impossible for the investors to recoup their losses.
This creates a conundrum in that the seller, under the advice and counsel of their agent race to get an offer accepted by lowering the price of the property in order to attract a buyer get an offer. But then what?? In far too many cases, buyers so badly want the property at the low price that they are not being fully informed of the timeframes that are likely to be experienced to get to a closing...if ever.
It has been my experience that in the majority of cases, the buyers are so excited to think that they are going to get a property for a below market price that they agree to allow the bank time to respond to the dollar amount, but after a while grow impatient with the lack of response and eventually initiate a cancellation of the purchase agreement or refuse to extend the date by which the bank has to issue 3rd party approval. Time after time, I see sellers attempting to sell via a short sale and time after time eventually see the property end up being foreclosed upon or Real Estate Owned (REO). By their own numbers, banks realize a higher return by accepting a short sale offer vs. a foreclosure offer, but yet the situation is not getting any better.
If you as a buyer are in a position to wait for 6-12 months for property to obtain 3rd party approval to sell short, and are accepting of those timeframes all the while losing out on other opportunities to move on with your life, then short sales may be for you. But if the prospect of having to wait that long, or never closing do not work with your life plans, then perhaps you should consider other properties.
The best way to determine the best route for you is to sit down with a professional REALTOR and have a candid, honest conversation as to what your needs are and then prepare a plan accordingly to make your goals become reality.
Wednesday, November 14, 2012
Thursday, September 20, 2012
Rain, Rain Go Away
With all the rain that we have had lately, homes that have never had water issues suddenly are. The ground is becoming very saturated and can't take a lot more...thus the path of least resistance may be into your basement or crawl space. And the upcoming forecast is calling for more rain...
http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?zoneid=AKZ111
Make sure that your gutters are clear and that your downspouts are long enough so that the rain water can get far enough away from the house. If you have more water coming over the sides of your gutters than is coming out the downspouts, hire someone to come and clean them so that they are operating properly.
The added bonus to checking your gutters now is that winter is soon coming and if they aren't draining properly due to composting leaves and debris, they will fill with water and freeze soon contributing to ice dams.
Take a couple of minutes tonight to makes sure that things are as they should be.
http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?zoneid=AKZ111
Make sure that your gutters are clear and that your downspouts are long enough so that the rain water can get far enough away from the house. If you have more water coming over the sides of your gutters than is coming out the downspouts, hire someone to come and clean them so that they are operating properly.
The added bonus to checking your gutters now is that winter is soon coming and if they aren't draining properly due to composting leaves and debris, they will fill with water and freeze soon contributing to ice dams.
Take a couple of minutes tonight to makes sure that things are as they should be.
Wednesday, September 19, 2012
Existing home sales numbers are out...and....
The August existing home sales report came out today and there is some reason to be somewhat happy.
Somewhat.
http://www.foxbusiness.com/industries/2012/09/19/existing-home-sales-leap-78-fastest-pace-since-may-2010/
The numbers went up almost 8% last month and the average national price went up by nearly 10%. The number of homes that are estimated to sell this year is hovering around 4.8 million...that's a lot of homes. But when that number is placed against the 7+ million that sold in 2005, it pales in comparison. Granted the 2005 number was during the period when you could fog a mirror to get a mortgage.
Now we have record low interest rates and the housing affordability index, while not at the highest point in recorded history like it was in February of 2012, it is off the charts compared to its ranking in 2005 at the peak of the market. So why isn't the US home market skyrocketing? That's simple...it is the nation's jobless rate teamed with the tightening credit markets. No job = No mortgage
The housing market will explode at such point as the nation's jobless numbers improve...and not the fractionally decreasing jobless number that we are currently witnessing as that number declining is more a result of workers dropping out of the workforce and no longer being counted. Not as a result of the type of job creations that are necessary to drop that number.
In watching the extracurricular activities in the middle east over the last week, it has become perfectly clear that we as a country need to become energy independent once and for all. No more idol chatter...
We currently import roughly 9 million barrels of foreign oil each day. At approximately $100/barrel that is nearly a billion dollars a day that we are losing in foreign trade. What would happen if that production came domestically? And what would the resulting effect be on the US economy? It is staggering to even comprehend. The amount of US jobs that would be created would immediately have a positive influence on the overall economy. With nearly a billion dollars a day leaving our border, with much of it going to countries that are not pro-USA, it would go a long way to not only solving our own energy shortfall, but go a long way toward solving our nation's debt crisis while pulling the economic "rug" out from under those countries that do not like us.
The nation's housing crisis would also improve within a matter of about 3 years as excess inventory was absorbed and the market begin to experience an appreciatory period as a result of declining supply. Many have said that an increase in the housing market and new home starts will stimulate job growth to take our country out of a recession. And while that may have been true in the past, the current housing recovery will only truly come as a result of job growth first, and not due to an artificially declining jobless rate.
And that is not presently on the radar.
Somewhat.
http://www.foxbusiness.com/industries/2012/09/19/existing-home-sales-leap-78-fastest-pace-since-may-2010/
The numbers went up almost 8% last month and the average national price went up by nearly 10%. The number of homes that are estimated to sell this year is hovering around 4.8 million...that's a lot of homes. But when that number is placed against the 7+ million that sold in 2005, it pales in comparison. Granted the 2005 number was during the period when you could fog a mirror to get a mortgage.
Now we have record low interest rates and the housing affordability index, while not at the highest point in recorded history like it was in February of 2012, it is off the charts compared to its ranking in 2005 at the peak of the market. So why isn't the US home market skyrocketing? That's simple...it is the nation's jobless rate teamed with the tightening credit markets. No job = No mortgage
The housing market will explode at such point as the nation's jobless numbers improve...and not the fractionally decreasing jobless number that we are currently witnessing as that number declining is more a result of workers dropping out of the workforce and no longer being counted. Not as a result of the type of job creations that are necessary to drop that number.
In watching the extracurricular activities in the middle east over the last week, it has become perfectly clear that we as a country need to become energy independent once and for all. No more idol chatter...
We currently import roughly 9 million barrels of foreign oil each day. At approximately $100/barrel that is nearly a billion dollars a day that we are losing in foreign trade. What would happen if that production came domestically? And what would the resulting effect be on the US economy? It is staggering to even comprehend. The amount of US jobs that would be created would immediately have a positive influence on the overall economy. With nearly a billion dollars a day leaving our border, with much of it going to countries that are not pro-USA, it would go a long way to not only solving our own energy shortfall, but go a long way toward solving our nation's debt crisis while pulling the economic "rug" out from under those countries that do not like us.
The nation's housing crisis would also improve within a matter of about 3 years as excess inventory was absorbed and the market begin to experience an appreciatory period as a result of declining supply. Many have said that an increase in the housing market and new home starts will stimulate job growth to take our country out of a recession. And while that may have been true in the past, the current housing recovery will only truly come as a result of job growth first, and not due to an artificially declining jobless rate.
And that is not presently on the radar.
Wednesday, September 5, 2012
Can you help reunite items found with the owner?
Everyone, I need your help....
We recently were up at Hatcher Pass picking blueberries and found an SD card for a camera along with a battery for some kind of camera. Perhaps you know who might have lost them. If so, give a call at (907)352-1828 if you can help reunite them with the rightful owner. I checked the card to see if there was any pictures on there that might help in identifying who the owner might be, but it was empty.
Hope to get these back to whomever lost them.
Have a good week,
Greg
We recently were up at Hatcher Pass picking blueberries and found an SD card for a camera along with a battery for some kind of camera. Perhaps you know who might have lost them. If so, give a call at (907)352-1828 if you can help reunite them with the rightful owner. I checked the card to see if there was any pictures on there that might help in identifying who the owner might be, but it was empty.
Hope to get these back to whomever lost them.
Have a good week,
Greg
Tuesday, March 27, 2012
January Case Shiller Report..."Survey says?!"
It is that time of the month again... The Case Shiller report is released on the last Tuesday of the month and is eagerly anticipated by Wall Street as well as other industries that are tied to the housing market to shed some light on the market. I have previously posted the Case Shiller report and the data that it tracks. You can find that from about a month ago on my blog at www.GregShepard.com.
There is some good news contained in the report this morning...but you better have a good magnifying glass in order to spot it. http://www.standardandpoors.com/indices/sp-case-shiller-home-price-indices/en/us/?indexId=spusa-cashpidff--p-us----
Watching Robert Shiller this morning on television, he really didn't want to get painted in to a corner by declaring the market is improving or if it still had room to decline. Here is a link to the video of his interview. http://video.foxbusiness.com/v/1532717612001/yales-shiller-unsure-about-future-of-housing/?playlist_id=87061
If you watch Mr. Shiller's interview, and have watched some of his others, you will notice that he looked very uncomfortable this morning. It almost seemed like he knew something, but didn't want to expound on it much.
There are some other reports out this morning by the national home builders that their new housing starts are on the rise...which reminds all of us that this information is comprised of composites, and does not encompass all markets. The "800 pound gorilla in the room" will be the confusion in the unemployment rate. If it truly is dropping as we are told, why isn't the housing market getting better? And if it is truly dropping as we are told, why aren't income tax receipts to the federal government increasing? Could it be that the unemployment rate is being manipulated for political gain and isn't actually dropping as a result of a new hires?
As the quote from the old Virginia coal miner goes, "No matter how thin I try to make my pancakes, they always end up having two sides.", so go the reports today.
Pick whichever side of this debate that you wish...and the reality of it is, you will pick the winning side however you so choose.
The 10 year U.S. Treasury Notes have been increasingly more volatile over the last couple of weeks as those European countries with the most serious deficit issues grapple over their financial futures. One day the situation seems to be moving toward an amicable solution and the 10 year T-Bill goes up, and the next day the situation seems to heading toward a meltdown and the 10 T-Bill goes down as the world markets look to the "stability" of the U.S. 10 T-Bill. There is an oxymoron if there was ever one in the current financial market!
The good news to report in this is that the Alaska Real Estate Market has been very stable compared to other parts of the country. Growth, although somewhat slower, is still occurring. Unemployment statewide dropped again, and the outlook for the Mat-Su borough remains very positive through it all.
Having witnessed the complete and utter collapse of an economy and a real estate market over the course of the last 6 years in the Brainerd Lakes Area in Minnesota, witnessing life again has been one of the more difficult things to adjust to. Over the course of 3,168 miles and 5 days in a 26' U-Haul Time Machine, it is though we were sent back to Brainerd in 1996. Back to when the infrastructure wasn't equipped to handle the burgeoning traffic, when the businesses were facing labor deficits and it was the model of economic growth.
When were packing to leave, Sherri found an article out of the Brainerd Dispatch from January 2000. The biggest fear that they faced then? With around a 3% unemployment, area businesses didn't know how they would be able to attract employees to the Brainerd area! It has now had the state's highest unemployment rate for cities over 10,000 people for over 4 years with unemployment rates ranging from around 11 to the low 20s percent.
It is inconceivable that the Brainerd area could deteriorate that fast. Over the course of just 7 years, it went from first to worst. No one could have ever predicted that dramatic of a change that fast...and the resulting carnage will likely take a generation (or more) to recover from.
I wasn't raised a quitter...but I wasn't raised to be an idiot either.
The "quitter" side ultimately won.
Come on global warming!!! We are tired of driving on "glaciers" on the side roads....
Greg
There is some good news contained in the report this morning...but you better have a good magnifying glass in order to spot it. http://www.standardandpoors.com/indices/sp-case-shiller-home-price-indices/en/us/?indexId=spusa-cashpidff--p-us----
Watching Robert Shiller this morning on television, he really didn't want to get painted in to a corner by declaring the market is improving or if it still had room to decline. Here is a link to the video of his interview. http://video.foxbusiness.com/v/1532717612001/yales-shiller-unsure-about-future-of-housing/?playlist_id=87061
If you watch Mr. Shiller's interview, and have watched some of his others, you will notice that he looked very uncomfortable this morning. It almost seemed like he knew something, but didn't want to expound on it much.
There are some other reports out this morning by the national home builders that their new housing starts are on the rise...which reminds all of us that this information is comprised of composites, and does not encompass all markets. The "800 pound gorilla in the room" will be the confusion in the unemployment rate. If it truly is dropping as we are told, why isn't the housing market getting better? And if it is truly dropping as we are told, why aren't income tax receipts to the federal government increasing? Could it be that the unemployment rate is being manipulated for political gain and isn't actually dropping as a result of a new hires?
As the quote from the old Virginia coal miner goes, "No matter how thin I try to make my pancakes, they always end up having two sides.", so go the reports today.
Pick whichever side of this debate that you wish...and the reality of it is, you will pick the winning side however you so choose.
The 10 year U.S. Treasury Notes have been increasingly more volatile over the last couple of weeks as those European countries with the most serious deficit issues grapple over their financial futures. One day the situation seems to be moving toward an amicable solution and the 10 year T-Bill goes up, and the next day the situation seems to heading toward a meltdown and the 10 T-Bill goes down as the world markets look to the "stability" of the U.S. 10 T-Bill. There is an oxymoron if there was ever one in the current financial market!
The good news to report in this is that the Alaska Real Estate Market has been very stable compared to other parts of the country. Growth, although somewhat slower, is still occurring. Unemployment statewide dropped again, and the outlook for the Mat-Su borough remains very positive through it all.
Having witnessed the complete and utter collapse of an economy and a real estate market over the course of the last 6 years in the Brainerd Lakes Area in Minnesota, witnessing life again has been one of the more difficult things to adjust to. Over the course of 3,168 miles and 5 days in a 26' U-Haul Time Machine, it is though we were sent back to Brainerd in 1996. Back to when the infrastructure wasn't equipped to handle the burgeoning traffic, when the businesses were facing labor deficits and it was the model of economic growth.
When were packing to leave, Sherri found an article out of the Brainerd Dispatch from January 2000. The biggest fear that they faced then? With around a 3% unemployment, area businesses didn't know how they would be able to attract employees to the Brainerd area! It has now had the state's highest unemployment rate for cities over 10,000 people for over 4 years with unemployment rates ranging from around 11 to the low 20s percent.
It is inconceivable that the Brainerd area could deteriorate that fast. Over the course of just 7 years, it went from first to worst. No one could have ever predicted that dramatic of a change that fast...and the resulting carnage will likely take a generation (or more) to recover from.
I wasn't raised a quitter...but I wasn't raised to be an idiot either.
The "quitter" side ultimately won.
Come on global warming!!! We are tired of driving on "glaciers" on the side roads....
Greg
Wednesday, March 7, 2012
2012 Employment Outlook in Alaska (not to spoil it for you...but it looks good)
"Pay no attention to the man behind the curtain" is one of my favorite quotes from the Wizard of Oz. As you all recall, that was during the scene when the "Wizard" didn't want Dorothy and the rest of her gang to know that the "Wizard" really wasn't who they thought he was.
The same, it seems, describes how the economic recovery is progressing. To be certain, there is some encouraging signs in the United State's economic recovery, but it is far from complete or as much as "the man behind the curtain" would like us to believe.
After having the distinct privilege of attending a meeting this morning where Alaska Department of Labor Economist Neal Fried spoke. It only reaffirmed my opinion of Alaska's economic climate and what the future holds here. Since the economic collapse in 2008 there are only 3 states that have had an increase in nonfarm payroll employment. They are Alaska, Texas and North Dakota.
Neal also addressed growth in the state, and once again, only reaffirmed that why the Mat-Su Valley is the place to be. The amount of data that was shared this morning was nothing short of extraordinary. While the "man behind the curtain" continues to tell us how well the national economy is recovering, there isn't sufficient data to support that claim. Neal's data is spot on and tells a much more accurate story.
Each month, the Alaska Department of Labor publishes a magazine called Alaska Economic Trends. The following link will take you to the January issue that covers the 2012 Employment Forecast. http://labor.alaska.gov/trends/jan12.pdf The complete catalog of the reports can be found on the Alaska Department of Labor's website here. http://labor.alaska.gov/trends/
There are a wide variety of topics that are covered in these and served as an invaluable tool when we ourselves were contemplating moving here. We all hear about the $8 gallon of milk in Alaska etc. etc. and this was a topic that was covered in the May 2011 issue that addressed the cost of living in Alaska. http://labor.alaska.gov/trends/may11.pdf
Many of you are going to be reading this from "outside", (aka "lower 48ers") and are living through struggling economies where you are at and are contemplating relocation. I encourage you to do your research, and determine for yourself where the best place for you should be. North Dakota is experiencing a tremendous period of growth at the moment, but having good friends that have went to work out there, they love the paychecks, but can't wait to leave at the end of their stints. That works for some, but not for all.
Attending Neal's report this morning was good for my soul...not only was it so positive compared to the national numbers, but the meeting was held at the Elk's Lodge in Palmer/Wasilla. The lodge sits on the north shore of Finger Lake and featured views the likes of which you would assume were paintings on the wall where there should be windows. Clearly not the kind of place that you can't wait leave at the end of your stint.
For most, Alaska is a place that you never want to leave... At first, most didn't want to leave because of the extreme beauty, but anymore it is increasingly due to the economic health of the state.
Enjoy the Aurora tonight...the forecast is for a really big show!
Greg
The same, it seems, describes how the economic recovery is progressing. To be certain, there is some encouraging signs in the United State's economic recovery, but it is far from complete or as much as "the man behind the curtain" would like us to believe.
After having the distinct privilege of attending a meeting this morning where Alaska Department of Labor Economist Neal Fried spoke. It only reaffirmed my opinion of Alaska's economic climate and what the future holds here. Since the economic collapse in 2008 there are only 3 states that have had an increase in nonfarm payroll employment. They are Alaska, Texas and North Dakota.
Neal also addressed growth in the state, and once again, only reaffirmed that why the Mat-Su Valley is the place to be. The amount of data that was shared this morning was nothing short of extraordinary. While the "man behind the curtain" continues to tell us how well the national economy is recovering, there isn't sufficient data to support that claim. Neal's data is spot on and tells a much more accurate story.
Each month, the Alaska Department of Labor publishes a magazine called Alaska Economic Trends. The following link will take you to the January issue that covers the 2012 Employment Forecast. http://labor.alaska.gov/trends/jan12.pdf The complete catalog of the reports can be found on the Alaska Department of Labor's website here. http://labor.alaska.gov/trends/
There are a wide variety of topics that are covered in these and served as an invaluable tool when we ourselves were contemplating moving here. We all hear about the $8 gallon of milk in Alaska etc. etc. and this was a topic that was covered in the May 2011 issue that addressed the cost of living in Alaska. http://labor.alaska.gov/trends/may11.pdf
Many of you are going to be reading this from "outside", (aka "lower 48ers") and are living through struggling economies where you are at and are contemplating relocation. I encourage you to do your research, and determine for yourself where the best place for you should be. North Dakota is experiencing a tremendous period of growth at the moment, but having good friends that have went to work out there, they love the paychecks, but can't wait to leave at the end of their stints. That works for some, but not for all.
Attending Neal's report this morning was good for my soul...not only was it so positive compared to the national numbers, but the meeting was held at the Elk's Lodge in Palmer/Wasilla. The lodge sits on the north shore of Finger Lake and featured views the likes of which you would assume were paintings on the wall where there should be windows. Clearly not the kind of place that you can't wait leave at the end of your stint.
For most, Alaska is a place that you never want to leave... At first, most didn't want to leave because of the extreme beauty, but anymore it is increasingly due to the economic health of the state.
Enjoy the Aurora tonight...the forecast is for a really big show!
Greg
Tuesday, February 28, 2012
The sky is falling, the sky is falling!! Or is it?
About 6 years ago, I started to pay much more attention to the Case Shiller Home Price Indices. Something was going on in the local real estate market and it was unclear what it was.
As most of you read this, you have probably already subliminally heard at some point throughout the day that the home prices have fallen...again.... If you have had the radio on, or the news this morning, you may have heard it, but may not have paid attention to it.
The Case Shiller report is a compilation of home sales data covering 20 cities across the U.S. and is produced monthly. It is released on the last Tuesday of the month and is created by using data that ended 2 months prior. More on the Index here. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Case%E2%80%93Shiller_index Meaning that today's Case Shiller report is based on the data for the housing sales that ended in December 2011. This means that we all get an overview of what happened in the home sales arena in 2011...like we didn't already know...
But something that needs to be kept in perspective is that the report is based on 20 cities averages across the country. 20 cities! This is to the housing market what the Dow Jones Industrial Average is to the stock market. It is a snapshot of 30 companies and what is happening with their values. And that is all that it is...it is an average. It does provide some insight as to what is happening on a "big picture" scale, but doesn't provide accurate analysis on all companies. Stated differently, if the Dow Jones is down 200 points, it doesn't mean that all companies have lost value that day.
Robert Shiller was on Fox Business this morning and had some interesting things to say. And feels that the best thing to have a recovery in the housing market is to have an improvement in the job market. Bravo, Mr. Shiller, Bravo!! http://video.foxbusiness.com/v/1478831038001/shiller-could-be-housing-downtrend-for-5-10-more-years/?playlist_id=87247
The same is true about the housing market. Just because the Case Shiller Index showed a drop for the year end in 2011, it can not indicate that all cities have declined. And even if a city has had a decline, there are going to be pockets that are not going to follow the trend line within the city and can vary wildly. Townhomes vs. Single Family or low end vs. high end. Neighborhoods within a city can even differ greatly.
Every so often, the Dow Jones Industrial Average occasionally will "delist" a company that they no longer feel is relevant to the financial world. And in my opinion, there should either be an increase in the cities contained in the Case Shiller Index, or there should be some that are delisted. Just like their stock market cousins, they are no longer relevant in the overview of the housing market. Eastman Kodak was a "Blue Chip" company for 74 years before it was delisted in 2004. When that occurs to a company...the future is not looking bright for the employees, or the stockholders of it. Cities are the same way unfortunately....
There are cities that are not included in the Case Shiller list that ought to be included. Cities like Anchorage, AK should be one of them. The real estate market here is stable and didn't go through the wild gyrations that others experienced. It also has a progressive plan for the future over the next 20 years and as such, would provide a "ray of sunshine" in an otherwise very depressing report from Case Shiller.
Kind of thought that this would be a good day to shed some light on that subject. Hope that it helps!
Have a good Leap Day tomorrow!
Greg
As most of you read this, you have probably already subliminally heard at some point throughout the day that the home prices have fallen...again.... If you have had the radio on, or the news this morning, you may have heard it, but may not have paid attention to it.
The Case Shiller report is a compilation of home sales data covering 20 cities across the U.S. and is produced monthly. It is released on the last Tuesday of the month and is created by using data that ended 2 months prior. More on the Index here. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Case%E2%80%93Shiller_index Meaning that today's Case Shiller report is based on the data for the housing sales that ended in December 2011. This means that we all get an overview of what happened in the home sales arena in 2011...like we didn't already know...
But something that needs to be kept in perspective is that the report is based on 20 cities averages across the country. 20 cities! This is to the housing market what the Dow Jones Industrial Average is to the stock market. It is a snapshot of 30 companies and what is happening with their values. And that is all that it is...it is an average. It does provide some insight as to what is happening on a "big picture" scale, but doesn't provide accurate analysis on all companies. Stated differently, if the Dow Jones is down 200 points, it doesn't mean that all companies have lost value that day.
Robert Shiller was on Fox Business this morning and had some interesting things to say. And feels that the best thing to have a recovery in the housing market is to have an improvement in the job market. Bravo, Mr. Shiller, Bravo!! http://video.foxbusiness.com/v/1478831038001/shiller-could-be-housing-downtrend-for-5-10-more-years/?playlist_id=87247
The same is true about the housing market. Just because the Case Shiller Index showed a drop for the year end in 2011, it can not indicate that all cities have declined. And even if a city has had a decline, there are going to be pockets that are not going to follow the trend line within the city and can vary wildly. Townhomes vs. Single Family or low end vs. high end. Neighborhoods within a city can even differ greatly.
Every so often, the Dow Jones Industrial Average occasionally will "delist" a company that they no longer feel is relevant to the financial world. And in my opinion, there should either be an increase in the cities contained in the Case Shiller Index, or there should be some that are delisted. Just like their stock market cousins, they are no longer relevant in the overview of the housing market. Eastman Kodak was a "Blue Chip" company for 74 years before it was delisted in 2004. When that occurs to a company...the future is not looking bright for the employees, or the stockholders of it. Cities are the same way unfortunately....
There are cities that are not included in the Case Shiller list that ought to be included. Cities like Anchorage, AK should be one of them. The real estate market here is stable and didn't go through the wild gyrations that others experienced. It also has a progressive plan for the future over the next 20 years and as such, would provide a "ray of sunshine" in an otherwise very depressing report from Case Shiller.
Kind of thought that this would be a good day to shed some light on that subject. Hope that it helps!
Have a good Leap Day tomorrow!
Greg
Monday, February 6, 2012
Which Remodeling Projects Pay Off the Most?
This is one of the most commonly asked questions that I get this time of year when homeowners contemplate which home improvement projects they are thinking of tackling.
If you are interested in knowing which ones are best, drop a note or give a call and we can discuss it in detail as the answer(s) might surprise you. Keep in mind that there is a big difference between making your home more "salable" and making it more "valuable". The best way is to spend some time together at your home so that we can, together, decide which items make the most sense given the competitive market that you will be in should you decide to list your home.
The spring listing season has rapidly come upon us, and the buyers seem to have more of a sense of urgency this year than they have in years...that is not to imply that we are at the "silliness" level that was experienced 5-8 years ago. With that said, it is more important than ever to prepare a carefully thought out plan as to what should be done to attract buyers to your home over the others that are currently for sale. The winners in the market today understand that in order to "win" that it is part "beauty contest" and part "pricing war". As the local real estate market recovers, inventory levels will drop with an appreciatory period slightly behind. In my opinion, that is where we are right now.
Something that I am also monitoring is the ratio of renters to owners, and why there is such a high level of renters right now. It would appear that many of the current renters are doing so as a result of a blip in their credit, and are now waiting for their past situation to clear allowing them to then enter back into the market as homeowners. Based on extensive research, it appears that we should be coming into a period where many of them will be able to buy again as well. This will only add to the pressure on existing inventories and accelerate the time frame to the aforementioned appreciatory period that is expected. Barring any unexpected change in the world markets, I think that we are closer to the end of the "buyers" market in Alaska than what is currently being reported on a National level. Here is a story from the National Association of REALTORS that illustrates that point. http://www.realtor.org/press_room/news_releases/2012/01/phs_dec
I will continue to monitor all of the factors that have a bearing on the local real estate market so that when the need arises, be able to provide a superior level of counsel so that you can make an informed, educated decision based on that research.
With the amount of snow that we have received in the Mat-Su Valley, the moose have been forced out of their normal wintering grounds and are out in record numbers by the roads. The amount of car-moose hits has already surpassed last year's year end count as a result.
Until next time...watch out for moose along the road and drive safe!
Greg
If you are interested in knowing which ones are best, drop a note or give a call and we can discuss it in detail as the answer(s) might surprise you. Keep in mind that there is a big difference between making your home more "salable" and making it more "valuable". The best way is to spend some time together at your home so that we can, together, decide which items make the most sense given the competitive market that you will be in should you decide to list your home.
The spring listing season has rapidly come upon us, and the buyers seem to have more of a sense of urgency this year than they have in years...that is not to imply that we are at the "silliness" level that was experienced 5-8 years ago. With that said, it is more important than ever to prepare a carefully thought out plan as to what should be done to attract buyers to your home over the others that are currently for sale. The winners in the market today understand that in order to "win" that it is part "beauty contest" and part "pricing war". As the local real estate market recovers, inventory levels will drop with an appreciatory period slightly behind. In my opinion, that is where we are right now.
Something that I am also monitoring is the ratio of renters to owners, and why there is such a high level of renters right now. It would appear that many of the current renters are doing so as a result of a blip in their credit, and are now waiting for their past situation to clear allowing them to then enter back into the market as homeowners. Based on extensive research, it appears that we should be coming into a period where many of them will be able to buy again as well. This will only add to the pressure on existing inventories and accelerate the time frame to the aforementioned appreciatory period that is expected. Barring any unexpected change in the world markets, I think that we are closer to the end of the "buyers" market in Alaska than what is currently being reported on a National level. Here is a story from the National Association of REALTORS that illustrates that point. http://www.realtor.org/press_room/news_releases/2012/01/phs_dec
I will continue to monitor all of the factors that have a bearing on the local real estate market so that when the need arises, be able to provide a superior level of counsel so that you can make an informed, educated decision based on that research.
Until next time...watch out for moose along the road and drive safe!
Greg
Monday, January 30, 2012
-30 temps...so what?!
Last weekend I had the pleasure of hosting a couple of new construction homes in "The Ranch". The temperatures were around -30F both days, but the skies were clear and the sun was out. It was a mini "Parade of Homes" and it was a very successful event by all counts.
Part of the appeal of living in Alaska is the opportunity to meet some terrific people. Many of the attendees are current military personal and you will gain a sense of sincere appreciation for them and their efforts.
It is always a joy to listen to their stories about where they came from, and how much they enjoy it here. Many have decided that even if they are ordered to go elsewhere, the overwhelming majority have decided that once they retire, that Alaska will be their permanent home.
One of the licensees in the office has some clients that she has gotten to know have now retired from the military, but before they decided that Alaska was where they wanted to spend the rest of their days, they took a 4 month tour of the lower 48 to see if there was somewhere that they would rather be. Up and down the west coast, to Arizona and all the way to Pennsylvania spending a few days in each area to get a "feel" for the area and to see if they would enjoy it there better. The result? They are on their way back to make Alaska their home...and this time for good.
When they spent time in the different areas there was always something that they didn't like. Bear in mind they are retired and have military pensions, so finding a job wasn't important. But what they found was that even though they could buy a home for far less than they could here, being in a dying city didn't feel right to them regardless as to what they could buy a home for.
We have been very fortunate to meet some extraordinary people and are surprised at their generosity. For example, on Saturday I met a military couple that have moved here from Oklahoma. He is an avid hunter and it was fascinating listening to his hunting stories of his trips here. He was recently out to Adak on a successful caribou hunt. Did you know that a bull caribou on Adak can reach 700 pounds? About an hour after they left the home that I was holding open, he returned and asked if I would be interested in trying some of the caribou that he had processed. Of course I was very interested so we went out to the truck and he gave me a sample of caribou burger and package of hot polish sausage. It has been kind of busy since the weekend, and we haven't had a chance to try it yet, but hope to later this week.
Another couple that came (also military) are close to retiring and they had a great story as well. She recently was hired by Knight's Taxidermy (of The History Channel's hit show "Mounted in Alaska") to be a "rugger". http://www.knightstaxidermy.com/ If you have a hide that you want to have a rug made out of, there is a good chance that she will be the one to do it. And has at least year's worth of work ahead of her!
Although there are far more people here, it never ceases to amaze how close knit the community is. And how many things there are to do here. It is going to be an interesting 2012!
Throw another log on the fire and keep an eye out for the Aurora!
Until next time...
Greg
Part of the appeal of living in Alaska is the opportunity to meet some terrific people. Many of the attendees are current military personal and you will gain a sense of sincere appreciation for them and their efforts.
It is always a joy to listen to their stories about where they came from, and how much they enjoy it here. Many have decided that even if they are ordered to go elsewhere, the overwhelming majority have decided that once they retire, that Alaska will be their permanent home.
One of the licensees in the office has some clients that she has gotten to know have now retired from the military, but before they decided that Alaska was where they wanted to spend the rest of their days, they took a 4 month tour of the lower 48 to see if there was somewhere that they would rather be. Up and down the west coast, to Arizona and all the way to Pennsylvania spending a few days in each area to get a "feel" for the area and to see if they would enjoy it there better. The result? They are on their way back to make Alaska their home...and this time for good.
When they spent time in the different areas there was always something that they didn't like. Bear in mind they are retired and have military pensions, so finding a job wasn't important. But what they found was that even though they could buy a home for far less than they could here, being in a dying city didn't feel right to them regardless as to what they could buy a home for.
We have been very fortunate to meet some extraordinary people and are surprised at their generosity. For example, on Saturday I met a military couple that have moved here from Oklahoma. He is an avid hunter and it was fascinating listening to his hunting stories of his trips here. He was recently out to Adak on a successful caribou hunt. Did you know that a bull caribou on Adak can reach 700 pounds? About an hour after they left the home that I was holding open, he returned and asked if I would be interested in trying some of the caribou that he had processed. Of course I was very interested so we went out to the truck and he gave me a sample of caribou burger and package of hot polish sausage. It has been kind of busy since the weekend, and we haven't had a chance to try it yet, but hope to later this week.
Another couple that came (also military) are close to retiring and they had a great story as well. She recently was hired by Knight's Taxidermy (of The History Channel's hit show "Mounted in Alaska") to be a "rugger". http://www.knightstaxidermy.com/ If you have a hide that you want to have a rug made out of, there is a good chance that she will be the one to do it. And has at least year's worth of work ahead of her!
Although there are far more people here, it never ceases to amaze how close knit the community is. And how many things there are to do here. It is going to be an interesting 2012!
Throw another log on the fire and keep an eye out for the Aurora!
Until next time...
Greg
Wednesday, January 18, 2012
What do you mean no Wikipedia today?
I tried to "Wiki" something today, but see that they are on "strike", so to speak. There was a hot link to their "side" of the argument. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wikipedia:SOPA_initiative/Learn_more And it brought up some valid points...just as the other side undoubtedly has their valid points.
Unfortunately, I haven't really paid much attention to their battle as it has not, until today, made any difference. But this now has caught my attention, as it has no doubt caught millions of American's attention today. And as so often is the case now that the grey hairs outnumber the others, I tend to see both sides. Years ago I heard a quote that has stuck with me ever since. And it was the story about an old Virginia coal miner that said that no matter how thin he made his pancakes, they always ended up having two sides.
If you allow yourself to only hear one side of any argument, it is easy to be swayed that direction. But invariably there are two sides. And if you heard the other side of the argument first, that would sway you in that direction as well.
It is kind of like going for a ride in a canoe....The goal to going for a ride in a canoe is to stay as close to the middle as you can. If you lean too far one way, you will wildly flap your arms in order to correct your balance. And all too often, you will tend to go too far the other way after the correction....with the process often then repeating itself. "Been there, done that" on a canoe ride with Dad years ago in northern Minnesota on Halloween evening trying to bow hunt for whitetail deer in a river that always had deer hanging out on either side in the red willows...but that is a story for another time. Suffice it to say, we got our knuckles wet on each side of the canoe while trying to "shoot" a beaver dam and the subsequent wildly flapping arms. With ice forming on the canoe paddles as we went, you get an idea as to how bad that would have been to go for a swim.
The point is this...It wouldn't be necessary to wildly flap your arms in corrective measures if you had not gotten so far to one side to begin with. Staying in the middle the entire time would have resulted in a much more stable ride without the extremes. Alaska is no different than any of the other states. The Anchorage Daily News has a story today about the 2012 legislative session beginning. One of the main topics is of course the ACES tax on oil corporation's profits. But as was the case last year...both sides of the AK Senate seem to have their knuckles deeply in the water on their respective side and are comfortable going for their canoe ride that way.
The same principal applies to many things...The financial market, the housing market, and many of these types of "causes" that the government decides to referee. But there is always a cause and effect dynamic. And all too often, decisions are rushed into before all the facts are reviewed without prejudice.
My industry would no doubt go through substantial gyrations in the event that the feed of our data was elected to be shut off. Where would consumers go if they wanted to get information on a variety of listings? With the amount of clearinghouses for our information increasing exponentially from where we first began 15 years ago with the introduction of REALTOR.com, there are increasing cases of fraud, and identity theft as "opportunists" see a means of scamming the public. Particularly so here in Alaska. The very nature of Alaska real estate is such that it is remote...and the only way that many people have to access information here is online. But if the data becomes restricted as a result of SOPA/PIPA then what? Fly up every time there is a new listing that would work for them? It isn't practical...but may become necessary in the event that congress becomes involved in the matter and passes the legislation.
I don't know where I am at on the matter...and if forced to "vote" on such a measure, don't know if it would be possible only really having heard one side of the argument so far.
And by tomorrow, it will all be back to normal....or will it?
Greg
Unfortunately, I haven't really paid much attention to their battle as it has not, until today, made any difference. But this now has caught my attention, as it has no doubt caught millions of American's attention today. And as so often is the case now that the grey hairs outnumber the others, I tend to see both sides. Years ago I heard a quote that has stuck with me ever since. And it was the story about an old Virginia coal miner that said that no matter how thin he made his pancakes, they always ended up having two sides.
If you allow yourself to only hear one side of any argument, it is easy to be swayed that direction. But invariably there are two sides. And if you heard the other side of the argument first, that would sway you in that direction as well.
It is kind of like going for a ride in a canoe....The goal to going for a ride in a canoe is to stay as close to the middle as you can. If you lean too far one way, you will wildly flap your arms in order to correct your balance. And all too often, you will tend to go too far the other way after the correction....with the process often then repeating itself. "Been there, done that" on a canoe ride with Dad years ago in northern Minnesota on Halloween evening trying to bow hunt for whitetail deer in a river that always had deer hanging out on either side in the red willows...but that is a story for another time. Suffice it to say, we got our knuckles wet on each side of the canoe while trying to "shoot" a beaver dam and the subsequent wildly flapping arms. With ice forming on the canoe paddles as we went, you get an idea as to how bad that would have been to go for a swim.
The point is this...It wouldn't be necessary to wildly flap your arms in corrective measures if you had not gotten so far to one side to begin with. Staying in the middle the entire time would have resulted in a much more stable ride without the extremes. Alaska is no different than any of the other states. The Anchorage Daily News has a story today about the 2012 legislative session beginning. One of the main topics is of course the ACES tax on oil corporation's profits. But as was the case last year...both sides of the AK Senate seem to have their knuckles deeply in the water on their respective side and are comfortable going for their canoe ride that way.
The same principal applies to many things...The financial market, the housing market, and many of these types of "causes" that the government decides to referee. But there is always a cause and effect dynamic. And all too often, decisions are rushed into before all the facts are reviewed without prejudice.
My industry would no doubt go through substantial gyrations in the event that the feed of our data was elected to be shut off. Where would consumers go if they wanted to get information on a variety of listings? With the amount of clearinghouses for our information increasing exponentially from where we first began 15 years ago with the introduction of REALTOR.com, there are increasing cases of fraud, and identity theft as "opportunists" see a means of scamming the public. Particularly so here in Alaska. The very nature of Alaska real estate is such that it is remote...and the only way that many people have to access information here is online. But if the data becomes restricted as a result of SOPA/PIPA then what? Fly up every time there is a new listing that would work for them? It isn't practical...but may become necessary in the event that congress becomes involved in the matter and passes the legislation.
I don't know where I am at on the matter...and if forced to "vote" on such a measure, don't know if it would be possible only really having heard one side of the argument so far.
And by tomorrow, it will all be back to normal....or will it?
Greg
Friday, January 13, 2012
Interest rates at historically low rates...but for how long?
Ok...I am going to go out on a limb. A limb filled with snow...but nonetheless a limb. Although interest rates are at historically low rates right now, I am going to go on record predicting that they still have more room to drop given the economic indicators that I track. But the question is, if you are a home buyer is it wise to wait? More on that shortly....
The U.S. 10 year Treasuries dropped to 1.843% today. The 10 year U.S. Treasury rate is one of the key indicators in establishing mortgage rates. But why is it dropping if the U.S. economy is in such rough shape? The reason is that although the U.S. economy is in rough shape it, for the moment at least, apparently it is more attractive to world wide investors than anywhere else. Someone on the news recently referred to the U.S. economy as the "prettiest horse in the glue factory". An odd analogy to be sure, but the point was very clearly made.
With western Europe struggling with how to deal with their deficits, and their 10 year bonds skyrocketing upward (meaning higher and higher interest rates) along with an almost certain lowering of their credit ratings by the major credit rating agencies, worldwide investors are nervous about putting their capital in those currencies. So for now...the 10 year U.S. Treasury is "safe" based on the world wide investor sentiment.
But back to the question about whether to wait for even lower interest rates if you are in the market to buy a home. 2011 proved to be a much better year for home sales in the Mat-Su Valley real estate market with nearly a 10% increase in the number of units sold. But it also experienced a 1.7% drop in average sale price.
The decision as to whether to buy now or roll the dice and hope for lower interest rates needs to be based on this one simple mathematical equation. The payment based on an increase of 1% in interest over 30 years would need to have a reduction of price of 11% in order to have the same monthly payment. Given the substantial increase in the number of homes that sold in the Mat-Su Valley in 2011, it may be an indicator that we have either hit the "bottom" of the market or are very, very close. As the bottoming of a market occurs, units are always the first to go up with pricing to follow as the supply vs. demand dynamic occurs. It doesn't matter if it is homes, cars (remember cash for clunkers and how that made the prices of used SUV's increase?), or sweatpants at Wal-Mart. Price anything low enough, the inventory will go away and scarcity then drives the price back up. One does not need to have an degree in economics from Harvard to understand the basic principles of a market.
So the question you have to ask yourself is this...What do you anticipate happening first? Interest rates dropping another percentage point, or the average home price dropping 11% or more? If interest rates go up and home prices also go up, the affordability factor drops exponentially.
With Alaska recently placing 3rd in the country for the fastest growing state, http://www.adn.com/2011/12/21/2228072/alaska-is-3rd-fastest-growing.html I know what my guess will be.
But we will have to wait until this time next year to know how it actually all plays out.
Enjoy your Friday with a much needed respite from the snow!
Greg
Thursday, January 12, 2012
Larry the Cable Guy in Alaska with a surprise visit to Gov. Palin's home
Did you happen to catch Larry the Cable Guy's television program "Only in America" last night on the History Channel? Last night was the season premier and it was entitled "Alaska Road Trip". Here is a link to it. http://www.history.com/shows/only-in-america-with-larry-the-cable-guy/videos/playlists/full-episodes#Only-in-America-with-Larry-the-Cable-Guy-Alaska-Road-Trip
A friend of mine in Minnesota sent a text message last night telling me about it. He said that Larry was going to be moose hunting with Gov. Palin in Alaska. In watching it, that isn't exactly what happened, but it was nonetheless entertaining. And pretty accurate to life here in Alaska. At the end of the program, he proclaimed that he loved Gov. Palin's parents. (or something like that affect)
Having had the honor and privilege to meet Gov. Palin's parents in person at basketball games here and would have to agree with Larry...they represent the best of Alaska and are truly wonderful people.
The part where Larry drops in unexpectantly at Gov. Palin's home actually did seem to be impromptu. I thought it was just "acting" to begin with, but he maybe did stop in without an appointment.
His show did capture the spirit of freedom here and the sense of community showing the Palmer football team packing out a moose to donate to charity.
The only thing that would have made it better would have been to cut the "adult" humor contained in it so that you would feel comfortable having your kids watch it. There is a time and a place for that in his stand-up routines, and although most of it was funny, some of it wasn't necessary for this production.
I would give it an 8 out of 10 on the entertainment scale and is worth watching if you missed it.
The snow is really coming down now...Drive careful Alaska!
Greg
A friend of mine in Minnesota sent a text message last night telling me about it. He said that Larry was going to be moose hunting with Gov. Palin in Alaska. In watching it, that isn't exactly what happened, but it was nonetheless entertaining. And pretty accurate to life here in Alaska. At the end of the program, he proclaimed that he loved Gov. Palin's parents. (or something like that affect)
Having had the honor and privilege to meet Gov. Palin's parents in person at basketball games here and would have to agree with Larry...they represent the best of Alaska and are truly wonderful people.
The part where Larry drops in unexpectantly at Gov. Palin's home actually did seem to be impromptu. I thought it was just "acting" to begin with, but he maybe did stop in without an appointment.
His show did capture the spirit of freedom here and the sense of community showing the Palmer football team packing out a moose to donate to charity.
The only thing that would have made it better would have been to cut the "adult" humor contained in it so that you would feel comfortable having your kids watch it. There is a time and a place for that in his stand-up routines, and although most of it was funny, some of it wasn't necessary for this production.
I would give it an 8 out of 10 on the entertainment scale and is worth watching if you missed it.
The snow is really coming down now...Drive careful Alaska!
Greg
Monday, January 9, 2012
Alaska Minnesotans
It isn't hard to find someone from Minnesota in Alaska. In fact, it is nearly impossible to not meet someone from Minnesota if you are out and about. We were in the ATT store a week ago and I was wearing my Minnesota Viking sweatshirt. The gal that checked us in said that she wished she could give us a discount because of that shirt. Evidently her dad is from Minnesota and is a Viking nut...has a whole room dedicated to Viking paraphernalia. And while waiting a guy came up and started to talking to us. He is from White Bear Lake and has been here for about 7 years. He works on the slope as a valve technician. Seriously..you can't go a day without finding a Minnesotan here
And when you read about the history of the Mat-Su valley and how it started to be developed, you will soon learn that many of the people that are here now had roots in Minnesota, Wisconsin and Michigan. During the 30's the Great Depression was in full swing. The Alaska Territory needed to colonize and to be able to grow food. The U.S. Dept. of the Interior sent out a guy from Washington D.C. to the upper midwest because Washington knew that there were people there that would be interested in a "fresh start". He was directed to look for married couples between 25-35 years old that had children. He was to find people of Scandinavian decent that could handle the climate here. PBS had a fascinating program on the colonists that came to Alaska.
They say that history has a habit of repeating itself....and that is often the case. During the 30's the U.S. unemployment rate was at all time highs, banks were failing, and the housing market took a hit the likes of which it had never seen. Until now.
When the tea leaves settled and it became clear that Alaska was where we needed to be, the "signs" began to appear. Have you ever bought a car or truck because it was unique and you had never seen one before. And as you drive away, you start to see them all over the place? Or learn a new word, a word that you have never heard or seen before and then it suddenly seems to appear everywhere? That's what it was like.
The day after the decision was made to investigate Alaska further, there was an ad in the Brainerd Dispatch classifieds. It said "free household items...moving to Alaska" I just about fell out of my chair in the office. It was the very same thing that I saw the night before on PBS about the colonists that came to Alaska. Each person was allowed 100 pounds of belongings to put on the ships that delivered them to Alaska. They sold what they could, and gave away the rest.
As we tried to sell the unnecessary items in garage sale after garage sale, it became clear how depressed the economy was there. When you had to give away gallon jugs of windshield washer fluid because you couldn't sell them for 50 cents, it became clear that the end was no where in sight for an economic recovery there.
It is very refreshing to see people doing things and enjoying life. I recently talked to a couple that moved here from Menagha. He is a builder and left Minnesota about 4 years ago. He didn't have real work for years and decided that he wanted out. They came up and have carved a new life for their family. It sounded like they all have went through periods that they missed friends and family there and have often thought about going back. He recently sold his home here and scheduled a family meeting. He had made enough money on the sale of the home and that if they, as a family, decided that they wanted to go back to Minnesota, that they could. The result? No one now wanted to go back.
When we were trying to decide what to do, we had friends whose parents spent a lot of time up here and they had a stack of Alaska magazines. We poured through them trying to learn about Alaska. And in one of them was a photo of a guy wearing a belt with a big buckle that said, "Alaska is what America was". In fact you can pick one up on ebay for $30. http://www.ebay.com/itm/Alaska-Pewter-Belt-Buckle-Alaska-America-/330555208344 What a statement...
There is life out there... but you may have to move in order to find it again.
And when you read about the history of the Mat-Su valley and how it started to be developed, you will soon learn that many of the people that are here now had roots in Minnesota, Wisconsin and Michigan. During the 30's the Great Depression was in full swing. The Alaska Territory needed to colonize and to be able to grow food. The U.S. Dept. of the Interior sent out a guy from Washington D.C. to the upper midwest because Washington knew that there were people there that would be interested in a "fresh start". He was directed to look for married couples between 25-35 years old that had children. He was to find people of Scandinavian decent that could handle the climate here. PBS had a fascinating program on the colonists that came to Alaska.
They say that history has a habit of repeating itself....and that is often the case. During the 30's the U.S. unemployment rate was at all time highs, banks were failing, and the housing market took a hit the likes of which it had never seen. Until now.
When the tea leaves settled and it became clear that Alaska was where we needed to be, the "signs" began to appear. Have you ever bought a car or truck because it was unique and you had never seen one before. And as you drive away, you start to see them all over the place? Or learn a new word, a word that you have never heard or seen before and then it suddenly seems to appear everywhere? That's what it was like.
The day after the decision was made to investigate Alaska further, there was an ad in the Brainerd Dispatch classifieds. It said "free household items...moving to Alaska" I just about fell out of my chair in the office. It was the very same thing that I saw the night before on PBS about the colonists that came to Alaska. Each person was allowed 100 pounds of belongings to put on the ships that delivered them to Alaska. They sold what they could, and gave away the rest.
As we tried to sell the unnecessary items in garage sale after garage sale, it became clear how depressed the economy was there. When you had to give away gallon jugs of windshield washer fluid because you couldn't sell them for 50 cents, it became clear that the end was no where in sight for an economic recovery there.
It is very refreshing to see people doing things and enjoying life. I recently talked to a couple that moved here from Menagha. He is a builder and left Minnesota about 4 years ago. He didn't have real work for years and decided that he wanted out. They came up and have carved a new life for their family. It sounded like they all have went through periods that they missed friends and family there and have often thought about going back. He recently sold his home here and scheduled a family meeting. He had made enough money on the sale of the home and that if they, as a family, decided that they wanted to go back to Minnesota, that they could. The result? No one now wanted to go back.
When we were trying to decide what to do, we had friends whose parents spent a lot of time up here and they had a stack of Alaska magazines. We poured through them trying to learn about Alaska. And in one of them was a photo of a guy wearing a belt with a big buckle that said, "Alaska is what America was". In fact you can pick one up on ebay for $30. http://www.ebay.com/itm/Alaska-Pewter-Belt-Buckle-Alaska-America-/330555208344 What a statement...
There is life out there... but you may have to move in order to find it again.
Friday, January 6, 2012
2011 Mat-Su Valley Real Estate Market Year in Review
Happy Alaskan New Year!
Just slightly over 1 year ago, I was analyzing the past, present and future of the real estate market in Pequot Lakes, MN...and didn't like what the tea leaves were revealing. Not one bit...
And so the process began in trying to determine where best to relocate my family. Not necessarily just where we should move in order to better ourselves financially, but where would we fit? Where could we move so that we were comfortable with not only the surroundings, but the people as well? And so the search was on....where could we go? Yes we chose Alaska....or perhaps Alaska chose us?
When we had our first child, everyone told us to enjoy them as they grow up so fast! And of course we said that we would...but we had no idea how fast it actually would go. With just a few short years now remaining with the kids, we not only wanted to relocate somewhere where would be able to prosper and provide for them, but to also have some fun with them. Not just a hot dog at the county fair kind of fun, but something that we hoped would actually make a significant statement in the forming in their lives. Mountain hiking, whale watching, world class salmon and halibut fishing, and the variety of hunting challenges that heretofore only were imaginable via Sports Afield and the like.
As I sat up every night in my recliner trying to determine where to go, the indicators routinely kept pointing to Alaska, and perhaps more specifically, the Mat-Su Valley. And so the wheels were set in motion to come up and see if it was as the research indicated. And it was.
Having witnessed a real estate market collapse and being virtually powerless to help my long time clients, a change needed to be made. Having been a licensed real estate professional since 1993, there have been good, as well as bad, periods in the market, but at no point had it ever looked so grim or had such a lack of hope. With the oil boom in North Dakota attracting the unemployed from Minnesota in droves, the outlook for a recovery loomed further and further. And although we have deep family roots to North Dakota, it wasn't where we envisioned having that much "fun" with the kids in our time remaining with them.
And so on what was the arguably the hardest thunderstorm that Minnesota experienced all year, I shut the hatch on the 26' U-Haul attached the car hauler to it and pulled away. We will never know whether it was tears or rain drops that were running down our faces as we watched our home, our business, our family and our friends disappear in the rear view mirror. And although we are 3100 miles from where we were at this time last year, we have met new friends and even some family members that we were unaware of.
As it relates to the real estate market...there is life. More life than we have seen in years. And although the market has not yet hit the levels that it experienced in 2006, it did experience a nearly 10% increase in number of homes sold this year and only a 1.65% drop in values. In a recovering market it is normal for the price increase to lag slightly behind an increase in units. Of note, the number of units sold in 2011 was the highest since 2007. With interest rates hovering at record lows, and an inventory that is decreasing, it would be logical to expect that 2012 will result in an increase in average sales price over 2011.
Property Type: Residential
Borough: 1D - Matanuska Susitna Borough
Construction Type: Existing and New Construction
We have went through a lot over the last 12 months...of course there have been highs and lows as you would expect, but the highs outweigh the lows.
I am now fully immersed in Alaskan real estate and although I may not know every street in the Mat-Su Valley, the knowledge that comes as a result of selling in a market that has lost over 50% of its value is proving to be invaluable as we set about creating a long list of satisfied past clients. Many of the licensees here have not been through a declining market, and are struggling to know just how to solve the problems that a downturn can create.
And that's where experience over experiments pay off.
Let me offer a heart felt thank you to Alaska for welcoming us and for making us feel more welcome than we could have ever imagined.
Greg
Just slightly over 1 year ago, I was analyzing the past, present and future of the real estate market in Pequot Lakes, MN...and didn't like what the tea leaves were revealing. Not one bit...
And so the process began in trying to determine where best to relocate my family. Not necessarily just where we should move in order to better ourselves financially, but where would we fit? Where could we move so that we were comfortable with not only the surroundings, but the people as well? And so the search was on....where could we go? Yes we chose Alaska....or perhaps Alaska chose us?
When we had our first child, everyone told us to enjoy them as they grow up so fast! And of course we said that we would...but we had no idea how fast it actually would go. With just a few short years now remaining with the kids, we not only wanted to relocate somewhere where would be able to prosper and provide for them, but to also have some fun with them. Not just a hot dog at the county fair kind of fun, but something that we hoped would actually make a significant statement in the forming in their lives. Mountain hiking, whale watching, world class salmon and halibut fishing, and the variety of hunting challenges that heretofore only were imaginable via Sports Afield and the like.
As I sat up every night in my recliner trying to determine where to go, the indicators routinely kept pointing to Alaska, and perhaps more specifically, the Mat-Su Valley. And so the wheels were set in motion to come up and see if it was as the research indicated. And it was.
Having witnessed a real estate market collapse and being virtually powerless to help my long time clients, a change needed to be made. Having been a licensed real estate professional since 1993, there have been good, as well as bad, periods in the market, but at no point had it ever looked so grim or had such a lack of hope. With the oil boom in North Dakota attracting the unemployed from Minnesota in droves, the outlook for a recovery loomed further and further. And although we have deep family roots to North Dakota, it wasn't where we envisioned having that much "fun" with the kids in our time remaining with them.
And so on what was the arguably the hardest thunderstorm that Minnesota experienced all year, I shut the hatch on the 26' U-Haul attached the car hauler to it and pulled away. We will never know whether it was tears or rain drops that were running down our faces as we watched our home, our business, our family and our friends disappear in the rear view mirror. And although we are 3100 miles from where we were at this time last year, we have met new friends and even some family members that we were unaware of.
As it relates to the real estate market...there is life. More life than we have seen in years. And although the market has not yet hit the levels that it experienced in 2006, it did experience a nearly 10% increase in number of homes sold this year and only a 1.65% drop in values. In a recovering market it is normal for the price increase to lag slightly behind an increase in units. Of note, the number of units sold in 2011 was the highest since 2007. With interest rates hovering at record lows, and an inventory that is decreasing, it would be logical to expect that 2012 will result in an increase in average sales price over 2011.
10-year Comparison Report
Borough: 1D - Matanuska Susitna Borough
Construction Type: Existing and New Construction
| Year | # Sold | Avg. List Price | % List Price Change | Avg. Sold Price | % Sold Price Change | Avg. DOM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
We have went through a lot over the last 12 months...of course there have been highs and lows as you would expect, but the highs outweigh the lows.
I am now fully immersed in Alaskan real estate and although I may not know every street in the Mat-Su Valley, the knowledge that comes as a result of selling in a market that has lost over 50% of its value is proving to be invaluable as we set about creating a long list of satisfied past clients. Many of the licensees here have not been through a declining market, and are struggling to know just how to solve the problems that a downturn can create.
And that's where experience over experiments pay off.
Let me offer a heart felt thank you to Alaska for welcoming us and for making us feel more welcome than we could have ever imagined.
Greg
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)