Monday, January 30, 2012

-30 temps...so what?!

Last weekend I had the pleasure of hosting a couple of new construction homes in "The Ranch".  The temperatures were around -30F both days, but the skies were clear and the sun was out.  It was a mini "Parade of Homes" and it was a very successful event by all counts.

Part of the appeal of living in Alaska is the opportunity to meet some terrific people.  Many of the attendees are current military personal and you will gain a sense of sincere appreciation for them and their efforts.

It is always a joy to listen to their stories about where they came from, and how much they enjoy it here.  Many have decided that even if they are ordered to go elsewhere, the overwhelming majority have decided that once they retire, that Alaska will be their permanent home.

One of the licensees in the office has some clients that she has gotten to know have now retired from the military, but before they decided that Alaska was where they wanted to spend the rest of their days, they took a 4 month tour of the lower 48 to see if there was somewhere that they would rather be.  Up and down the west coast, to Arizona and all the way to Pennsylvania spending a few days in each area to get a "feel" for the area and to see if they would enjoy it there better.  The result?  They are on their way back to make Alaska their home...and this time for good.

When they spent time in the different areas there was always something that they didn't like.  Bear in mind they are retired and have military pensions, so finding a job wasn't important.  But what they found was that even though they could buy a home for far less than they could here, being in a dying city didn't feel right to them regardless as to what they could buy a home for.

We have been very fortunate to meet some extraordinary people and are surprised at their generosity.  For example, on Saturday I met a military couple that have moved here from Oklahoma.  He is an avid hunter and it was fascinating listening to his hunting stories of his trips here.  He was recently out to Adak on a successful caribou hunt.  Did you know that a bull caribou on Adak can reach 700 pounds?  About an hour after they left the home that I was holding open, he returned and asked if I would be interested in trying some of the caribou that he had processed.  Of course I was very interested so we went out to the truck and he gave me a sample of caribou burger and package of hot polish sausage.  It has been kind of busy since the weekend, and we haven't had a chance to try it yet, but hope to later this week.

Another couple that came (also military) are close to retiring and they had a great story as well.  She recently was hired by Knight's Taxidermy (of The History Channel's hit show "Mounted in Alaska") to be a "rugger".  http://www.knightstaxidermy.com/  If you have a hide that you want to have a rug made out of, there is a good chance that she will be the one to do it.  And has at least year's worth of work ahead of her!  

Although there are far more people here, it never ceases to amaze how close knit the community is.  And how many things there are to do here.  It is going to be an interesting 2012!

Throw another log on the fire and keep an eye out for the Aurora!

Until next time...

Greg

Wednesday, January 18, 2012

What do you mean no Wikipedia today?

I tried to "Wiki" something today, but see that they are on "strike", so to speak.  There was a hot link to their "side" of the argument.  http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wikipedia:SOPA_initiative/Learn_more  And it brought up some valid points...just as the other side undoubtedly has their valid points.

Unfortunately, I haven't really paid much attention to their battle as it has not, until today, made any difference.  But this now has caught my attention, as it has no doubt caught millions of American's attention today.  And as so often is the case now that the grey hairs outnumber the others, I tend to see both sides.  Years ago I heard a quote that has stuck with me ever since.  And it was the story about an old Virginia coal miner that said that no matter how thin he made his pancakes, they always ended up having two sides.

If you allow yourself to only hear one side of any argument, it is easy to be swayed that direction.  But invariably there are two sides.  And if you heard the other side of the argument first, that would sway you in that direction as well.

It is kind of like going for a ride in a canoe....The goal to going for a ride in a canoe is to stay as close to the middle as you can.  If you lean too far one way, you will wildly flap your arms in order to correct your balance.  And all too often, you will tend to go too far the other way after the correction....with the process often then repeating itself.  "Been there, done that" on a canoe ride with Dad years ago in northern Minnesota on Halloween evening trying to bow hunt for whitetail deer in a river that always had deer hanging out on either side in the red willows...but that is a story for another time.  Suffice it to say, we got our knuckles wet on each side of the canoe while trying to "shoot" a beaver dam and the subsequent wildly flapping arms.  With ice forming on the canoe paddles as we went, you get an idea as to how bad that would have been to go for a swim.

The point is this...It wouldn't be necessary to wildly flap your arms in corrective measures if you had not gotten so far to one side to begin with.  Staying in the middle the entire time would have resulted in a much more stable ride without the extremes.  Alaska is no different than any of the other states.  The Anchorage Daily News has a story today about the 2012 legislative session beginning.  One of the main topics is of course the ACES tax on oil corporation's profits.  But as was the case last year...both sides of the AK Senate seem to have their knuckles deeply in the water on their respective side and are comfortable going for their canoe ride that way.    

The same principal applies to many things...The financial market, the housing market, and many of these types of "causes" that the government decides to referee.  But there is always a cause and effect dynamic.  And all too often, decisions are rushed into before all the facts are reviewed without prejudice.

My industry would no doubt go through substantial gyrations in the event that the feed of our data was elected to be shut off.  Where would consumers go if they wanted to get information on a variety of listings?  With the amount of clearinghouses for our information increasing exponentially from where we first began 15 years ago with the introduction of REALTOR.com, there are increasing cases of fraud, and identity theft as "opportunists" see a means of scamming the public.  Particularly so here in Alaska.  The very nature of Alaska real estate is such that it is remote...and the only way that many people have to access information here is online.  But if the data becomes restricted as a result of SOPA/PIPA then what?  Fly up every time there is a new listing that would work for them?  It isn't practical...but may become necessary in the event that congress becomes involved in the matter and passes the legislation.

I don't know where I am at on the matter...and if forced to "vote" on such a measure, don't know if it would be possible only really having heard one side of the argument so far.

And by tomorrow, it will all be back to normal....or will it?

Greg

Friday, January 13, 2012

Interest rates at historically low rates...but for how long?

Ok...I am going to go out on a limb.  A limb filled with snow...but nonetheless a limb.  Although interest rates are at historically low rates right now, I am going to go on record predicting that they still have more room to drop given the economic indicators that I track.  But the question is, if you are a home buyer is it wise to wait?  More on that shortly....  

The U.S. 10 year Treasuries dropped to 1.843% today.  The 10 year U.S. Treasury rate is one of the key indicators in establishing mortgage rates.  But why is it dropping if the U.S. economy is in such rough shape?  The reason is that although the U.S. economy is in rough shape it, for the moment at least, apparently it is more attractive to world wide investors than anywhere else.  Someone on the news recently referred to the U.S. economy as the "prettiest horse in the glue factory".  An odd analogy to be sure, but the point was very clearly made.  

With western Europe struggling with how to deal with their deficits, and their 10 year bonds skyrocketing upward (meaning higher and higher interest rates) along with an almost certain lowering of their credit ratings by the major credit rating agencies, worldwide investors are nervous about putting their capital in those currencies. So for now...the 10 year U.S. Treasury is "safe" based on the world wide investor sentiment.  

But back to the question about whether to wait for even lower interest rates if you are in the market to buy a home.  2011 proved to be a much better year for home sales in the Mat-Su Valley real estate market with nearly a 10% increase in the number of units sold.  But it also experienced a 1.7% drop in average sale price.  

The decision as to whether to buy now or roll the dice and hope for lower interest rates needs to be based on this one simple mathematical equation.  The payment based on an increase of 1% in interest over 30 years would need to have a reduction of price of 11% in order to have the same monthly payment.  Given the substantial increase in the number of homes that sold in the Mat-Su Valley in 2011, it may be an indicator that we have either hit the "bottom" of the market or are very, very close.  As the bottoming of a market occurs, units are always the first to go up with pricing to follow as the supply vs. demand dynamic occurs.  It doesn't matter if it is homes, cars (remember cash for clunkers and how that made the prices of used SUV's increase?), or sweatpants at Wal-Mart.  Price anything low enough, the inventory will go away and scarcity then drives the price back up.  One does not need to have an degree in economics from Harvard to understand the basic principles of a market.   

So the question you have to ask yourself is this...What do you anticipate happening first?  Interest rates dropping another percentage point, or the average home price dropping 11% or more?  If interest rates go up and home prices also go up, the affordability factor drops exponentially.  

With Alaska recently placing 3rd in the country for the fastest growing state, http://www.adn.com/2011/12/21/2228072/alaska-is-3rd-fastest-growing.html I know what my guess will be.

But we will have to wait until this time next year to know how it actually all plays out.  

Enjoy your Friday with a much needed respite from the snow!

Greg
  

  

 

Thursday, January 12, 2012

Larry the Cable Guy in Alaska with a surprise visit to Gov. Palin's home

Did you happen to catch Larry the Cable Guy's television program "Only in America" last night on the History Channel?  Last night was the season premier and it was entitled "Alaska Road Trip".  Here is a link to it.  http://www.history.com/shows/only-in-america-with-larry-the-cable-guy/videos/playlists/full-episodes#Only-in-America-with-Larry-the-Cable-Guy-Alaska-Road-Trip 

A friend of mine in Minnesota sent a text message last night telling me about it.  He said that Larry was going to be moose hunting with Gov. Palin in Alaska.  In watching it, that isn't exactly what happened, but it was nonetheless entertaining.  And pretty accurate to life here in Alaska.  At the end of the program, he proclaimed that he loved Gov. Palin's parents. (or something like that affect)

Having had the honor and privilege to meet Gov. Palin's parents in person at basketball games here and would have to agree with Larry...they represent the best of Alaska and are truly wonderful people.

The part where Larry drops in unexpectantly at Gov. Palin's home actually did seem to be impromptu.  I thought it was just "acting" to begin with, but he maybe did stop in without an appointment.

His show did capture the spirit of freedom here and the sense of community showing the Palmer football team packing out a moose to donate to charity.

The only thing that would have made it better would have been to cut the "adult" humor contained in it so that you would feel comfortable having your kids watch it.  There is a time and a place for that in his stand-up routines, and although most of it was funny, some of it wasn't necessary for this production.

I would give it an 8 out of 10 on the entertainment scale and is worth watching if you missed it.

The snow is really coming down now...Drive careful Alaska!

Greg

  

Monday, January 9, 2012

Alaska Minnesotans

It isn't hard to find someone from Minnesota in Alaska.  In fact, it is nearly impossible to not meet someone from Minnesota if you are out and about.  We were in the ATT store a week ago and I was wearing my Minnesota Viking sweatshirt.  The gal that checked us in said that she wished she could give us a discount because of that shirt.  Evidently her dad is from Minnesota and is a Viking nut...has a whole room dedicated to Viking paraphernalia.  And while waiting a guy came up and started to talking to us.  He is from White Bear Lake and has been here for about 7 years.  He works on the slope as a valve technician.  Seriously..you can't go a day without finding a Minnesotan here

And when you read about the history of the Mat-Su valley and how it started to be developed, you will soon learn that many of the people that are here now had roots in Minnesota, Wisconsin and Michigan.  During the 30's the Great Depression was in full swing.  The Alaska Territory needed to colonize and to be able to grow food.  The U.S. Dept. of the Interior sent out a guy from Washington D.C. to the upper midwest because Washington knew that there were people there that would be interested in a "fresh start".  He was directed to look for married couples between 25-35 years old that had children.  He was to find people of Scandinavian decent that could handle the climate here.  PBS had a fascinating program on the colonists that came to Alaska.

They say that history has a habit of repeating itself....and that is often the case.  During the 30's the U.S. unemployment rate was at all time highs, banks were failing, and the housing market took a hit the likes of which it had never seen.  Until now.

When the tea leaves settled and it became clear that Alaska was where we needed to be, the "signs" began to appear.  Have you ever bought a car or truck because it was unique and you had never seen one before.  And as you drive away, you start to see them all over the place?  Or learn a new word, a word that you have never heard or seen before and then it suddenly seems to appear everywhere?  That's what it was like.

The day after the decision was made to investigate Alaska further, there was an ad in the Brainerd Dispatch classifieds.  It said "free household items...moving to Alaska"  I just about fell out of my chair in the office.  It was the very same thing that I saw the night before on PBS about the colonists that came to Alaska.  Each person was allowed 100 pounds of belongings to put on the ships that delivered them to Alaska.  They sold what they could, and gave away the rest.

As we tried to sell the unnecessary items in garage sale after garage sale, it became clear how depressed the economy was there.  When you had to give away gallon jugs of windshield washer fluid because you couldn't sell them for 50 cents, it became clear that the end was no where in sight for an economic recovery there.

It is very refreshing to see people doing things and enjoying life.  I recently talked to a couple that moved here from Menagha.  He is a builder and left Minnesota about 4 years ago.  He didn't have real work for years and decided that he wanted out.  They came up and have carved a new life for their family.  It sounded like they all have went through periods that they missed friends and family there and have often thought about going back.  He recently sold his home here and scheduled a family meeting.  He had made enough money on the sale of the home and that if they, as a family, decided that they wanted to go back to Minnesota, that they could.  The result?  No one now wanted to go back.

When we were trying to decide what to do, we had friends whose parents spent a lot of time up here and they had a stack of Alaska magazines.  We poured through them trying to learn about Alaska.  And in one of them was a photo of a guy wearing a belt with a big buckle that said, "Alaska is what America was".  In fact you can pick one up on ebay for $30.  http://www.ebay.com/itm/Alaska-Pewter-Belt-Buckle-Alaska-America-/330555208344  What a statement... 

There is life out there... but you may have to move in order to find it again.

Friday, January 6, 2012

2011 Mat-Su Valley Real Estate Market Year in Review

Happy Alaskan New Year!

Just slightly over 1 year ago, I was analyzing the past, present and future of the real estate market in Pequot Lakes, MN...and didn't like what the tea leaves were revealing.  Not one bit...

And so the process began in trying to determine where best to relocate my family.  Not necessarily just where we should move in order to better ourselves financially, but where would we fit?  Where could we move so that we were comfortable with not only the surroundings, but the people as well?  And so the search was on....where could we go?  Yes we chose Alaska....or perhaps Alaska chose us?

When we had our first child, everyone told us to enjoy them as they grow up so fast!  And of course we said that we would...but we had no idea how fast it actually would go.  With just a few short years now remaining with the kids, we not only wanted to relocate somewhere where would be able to prosper and provide for them, but to also have some fun with them.  Not just a hot dog at the county fair kind of fun, but something that we hoped would actually make a significant statement in the forming in their lives.  Mountain hiking, whale watching, world class salmon and halibut fishing, and the variety of hunting challenges that heretofore only were imaginable via Sports Afield and the like.   

As I sat up every night in my recliner trying to determine where to go, the indicators routinely kept pointing to Alaska, and perhaps more specifically, the Mat-Su Valley.  And so the wheels were set in motion to come up and see if it was as the research indicated.  And it was.

Having witnessed a real estate market collapse and being virtually powerless to help my long time clients, a change needed to be made.  Having been a licensed real estate professional since 1993, there have been good, as well as bad, periods in the market, but at no point had it ever looked so grim or had such a lack of hope.  With the oil boom in North Dakota attracting the unemployed from Minnesota in droves, the outlook for a recovery loomed further and further.  And although we have deep family roots to North Dakota, it wasn't where we envisioned having that much "fun" with the kids in our time remaining with them.

And so on what was the arguably the hardest thunderstorm that Minnesota experienced all year, I shut the hatch on the 26' U-Haul attached the car hauler to it and pulled away.  We will never know whether it was tears or rain drops that were running down our faces as we watched our home, our business, our family and our friends disappear in the rear view mirror.  And although we are 3100 miles from where we were at this time last year, we have met new friends and even some family members that we were unaware of.

As it relates to the real estate market...there is life.  More life than we have seen in years.  And although the market has not yet hit the levels that it experienced in 2006, it did experience a nearly 10% increase in number of homes sold this year and only a 1.65% drop in values.  In a recovering market it is normal for the price increase to lag slightly behind an increase in units.  Of note, the number of units sold in 2011 was the highest since 2007.  With interest rates hovering at record lows, and an inventory that is decreasing, it would be logical to expect that 2012 will result in an increase in average sales price over 2011.  


10-year Comparison Report

Property Type: Residential
Borough: 1D - Matanuska Susitna Borough
Construction Type: Existing and New Construction

Year# SoldAvg. List Price% List Price
Change
Avg. Sold Price% Sold Price
Change
Avg. DOM
2002
1095
$153,417
NA
$150,753
NA
70
2003
1323
$164,928
6.98%
$163,486
7.79%
60
2004
1551
$180,691
8.72%
$179,618
8.98%
68
2005
1671
$204,468
11.63%
$203,333
11.66%
66
2006
1679
$218,546
6.44%
$216,733
6.18%
71
2007
1495
$224,335
2.58%
$221,547
2.17%
79
2008
1204
$225,420
0.48%
$221,539
-0.00%
88
2009
1145
$216,615
-4.06%
$212,436
-4.29%
93
2010
1162
$221,998
2.42%
$217,573
2.36%
86
2011
1232
$218,402
-1.65%
$213,795
-1.77%
88


We have went through a lot over the last 12 months...of course there have been highs and lows as you would expect, but the highs outweigh the lows.

I am now fully immersed in Alaskan real estate and although I may not know every street in the Mat-Su Valley, the knowledge that comes as a result of selling in a market that has lost over 50% of its value is proving to be invaluable as we set about creating a long list of satisfied past clients.  Many of the licensees here have not been through a declining market, and are struggling to know just how to solve the problems that a downturn can create.

And that's where experience over experiments pay off.

Let me offer a heart felt thank you to Alaska for welcoming us and for making us feel more welcome than we could have ever imagined.

Greg