It is that time of the month again... The Case Shiller report is released on the last Tuesday of the month and is eagerly anticipated by Wall Street as well as other industries that are tied to the housing market to shed some light on the market. I have previously posted the Case Shiller report and the data that it tracks. You can find that from about a month ago on my blog at www.GregShepard.com.
There is some good news contained in the report this morning...but you better have a good magnifying glass in order to spot it. http://www.standardandpoors.com/indices/sp-case-shiller-home-price-indices/en/us/?indexId=spusa-cashpidff--p-us----
Watching Robert Shiller this morning on television, he really didn't want to get painted in to a corner by declaring the market is improving or if it still had room to decline. Here is a link to the video of his interview. http://video.foxbusiness.com/v/1532717612001/yales-shiller-unsure-about-future-of-housing/?playlist_id=87061
If you watch Mr. Shiller's interview, and have watched some of his others, you will notice that he looked very uncomfortable this morning. It almost seemed like he knew something, but didn't want to expound on it much.
There are some other reports out this morning by the national home builders that their new housing starts are on the rise...which reminds all of us that this information is comprised of composites, and does not encompass all markets. The "800 pound gorilla in the room" will be the confusion in the unemployment rate. If it truly is dropping as we are told, why isn't the housing market getting better? And if it is truly dropping as we are told, why aren't income tax receipts to the federal government increasing? Could it be that the unemployment rate is being manipulated for political gain and isn't actually dropping as a result of a new hires?
As the quote from the old Virginia coal miner goes, "No matter how thin I try to make my pancakes, they always end up having two sides.", so go the reports today.
Pick whichever side of this debate that you wish...and the reality of it is, you will pick the winning side however you so choose.
The 10 year U.S. Treasury Notes have been increasingly more volatile over the last couple of weeks as those European countries with the most serious deficit issues grapple over their financial futures. One day the situation seems to be moving toward an amicable solution and the 10 year T-Bill goes up, and the next day the situation seems to heading toward a meltdown and the 10 T-Bill goes down as the world markets look to the "stability" of the U.S. 10 T-Bill. There is an oxymoron if there was ever one in the current financial market!
The good news to report in this is that the Alaska Real Estate Market has been very stable compared to other parts of the country. Growth, although somewhat slower, is still occurring. Unemployment statewide dropped again, and the outlook for the Mat-Su borough remains very positive through it all.
Having witnessed the complete and utter collapse of an economy and a real estate market over the course of the last 6 years in the Brainerd Lakes Area in Minnesota, witnessing life again has been one of the more difficult things to adjust to. Over the course of 3,168 miles and 5 days in a 26' U-Haul Time Machine, it is though we were sent back to Brainerd in 1996. Back to when the infrastructure wasn't equipped to handle the burgeoning traffic, when the businesses were facing labor deficits and it was the model of economic growth.
When were packing to leave, Sherri found an article out of the Brainerd Dispatch from January 2000. The biggest fear that they faced then? With around a 3% unemployment, area businesses didn't know how they would be able to attract employees to the Brainerd area! It has now had the state's highest unemployment rate for cities over 10,000 people for over 4 years with unemployment rates ranging from around 11 to the low 20s percent.
It is inconceivable that the Brainerd area could deteriorate that fast. Over the course of just 7 years, it went from first to worst. No one could have ever predicted that dramatic of a change that fast...and the resulting carnage will likely take a generation (or more) to recover from.
I wasn't raised a quitter...but I wasn't raised to be an idiot either.
The "quitter" side ultimately won.
Come on global warming!!! We are tired of driving on "glaciers" on the side roads....
Greg
Tuesday, March 27, 2012
Wednesday, March 7, 2012
2012 Employment Outlook in Alaska (not to spoil it for you...but it looks good)
"Pay no attention to the man behind the curtain" is one of my favorite quotes from the Wizard of Oz. As you all recall, that was during the scene when the "Wizard" didn't want Dorothy and the rest of her gang to know that the "Wizard" really wasn't who they thought he was.
The same, it seems, describes how the economic recovery is progressing. To be certain, there is some encouraging signs in the United State's economic recovery, but it is far from complete or as much as "the man behind the curtain" would like us to believe.
After having the distinct privilege of attending a meeting this morning where Alaska Department of Labor Economist Neal Fried spoke. It only reaffirmed my opinion of Alaska's economic climate and what the future holds here. Since the economic collapse in 2008 there are only 3 states that have had an increase in nonfarm payroll employment. They are Alaska, Texas and North Dakota.
Neal also addressed growth in the state, and once again, only reaffirmed that why the Mat-Su Valley is the place to be. The amount of data that was shared this morning was nothing short of extraordinary. While the "man behind the curtain" continues to tell us how well the national economy is recovering, there isn't sufficient data to support that claim. Neal's data is spot on and tells a much more accurate story.
Each month, the Alaska Department of Labor publishes a magazine called Alaska Economic Trends. The following link will take you to the January issue that covers the 2012 Employment Forecast. http://labor.alaska.gov/trends/jan12.pdf The complete catalog of the reports can be found on the Alaska Department of Labor's website here. http://labor.alaska.gov/trends/
There are a wide variety of topics that are covered in these and served as an invaluable tool when we ourselves were contemplating moving here. We all hear about the $8 gallon of milk in Alaska etc. etc. and this was a topic that was covered in the May 2011 issue that addressed the cost of living in Alaska. http://labor.alaska.gov/trends/may11.pdf
Many of you are going to be reading this from "outside", (aka "lower 48ers") and are living through struggling economies where you are at and are contemplating relocation. I encourage you to do your research, and determine for yourself where the best place for you should be. North Dakota is experiencing a tremendous period of growth at the moment, but having good friends that have went to work out there, they love the paychecks, but can't wait to leave at the end of their stints. That works for some, but not for all.
Attending Neal's report this morning was good for my soul...not only was it so positive compared to the national numbers, but the meeting was held at the Elk's Lodge in Palmer/Wasilla. The lodge sits on the north shore of Finger Lake and featured views the likes of which you would assume were paintings on the wall where there should be windows. Clearly not the kind of place that you can't wait leave at the end of your stint.
For most, Alaska is a place that you never want to leave... At first, most didn't want to leave because of the extreme beauty, but anymore it is increasingly due to the economic health of the state.
Enjoy the Aurora tonight...the forecast is for a really big show!
Greg
The same, it seems, describes how the economic recovery is progressing. To be certain, there is some encouraging signs in the United State's economic recovery, but it is far from complete or as much as "the man behind the curtain" would like us to believe.
After having the distinct privilege of attending a meeting this morning where Alaska Department of Labor Economist Neal Fried spoke. It only reaffirmed my opinion of Alaska's economic climate and what the future holds here. Since the economic collapse in 2008 there are only 3 states that have had an increase in nonfarm payroll employment. They are Alaska, Texas and North Dakota.
Neal also addressed growth in the state, and once again, only reaffirmed that why the Mat-Su Valley is the place to be. The amount of data that was shared this morning was nothing short of extraordinary. While the "man behind the curtain" continues to tell us how well the national economy is recovering, there isn't sufficient data to support that claim. Neal's data is spot on and tells a much more accurate story.
Each month, the Alaska Department of Labor publishes a magazine called Alaska Economic Trends. The following link will take you to the January issue that covers the 2012 Employment Forecast. http://labor.alaska.gov/trends/jan12.pdf The complete catalog of the reports can be found on the Alaska Department of Labor's website here. http://labor.alaska.gov/trends/
There are a wide variety of topics that are covered in these and served as an invaluable tool when we ourselves were contemplating moving here. We all hear about the $8 gallon of milk in Alaska etc. etc. and this was a topic that was covered in the May 2011 issue that addressed the cost of living in Alaska. http://labor.alaska.gov/trends/may11.pdf
Many of you are going to be reading this from "outside", (aka "lower 48ers") and are living through struggling economies where you are at and are contemplating relocation. I encourage you to do your research, and determine for yourself where the best place for you should be. North Dakota is experiencing a tremendous period of growth at the moment, but having good friends that have went to work out there, they love the paychecks, but can't wait to leave at the end of their stints. That works for some, but not for all.
Attending Neal's report this morning was good for my soul...not only was it so positive compared to the national numbers, but the meeting was held at the Elk's Lodge in Palmer/Wasilla. The lodge sits on the north shore of Finger Lake and featured views the likes of which you would assume were paintings on the wall where there should be windows. Clearly not the kind of place that you can't wait leave at the end of your stint.
For most, Alaska is a place that you never want to leave... At first, most didn't want to leave because of the extreme beauty, but anymore it is increasingly due to the economic health of the state.
Enjoy the Aurora tonight...the forecast is for a really big show!
Greg
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