Market on the Mend?

According to a new Consumer Outlook Survey for the first quarter of 2013 just released by Prudential Real Estate show Americans becoming more optimistic about the nation's housing market.

 

Here are some of the highpoints of the survey:

 

OVERVIEW: Prudential Real Estate’s Q1 Consumer Outlook Survey, conducted in February 2013, showed that American’s sentiment toward real estate is growing  

increasingly favorable.  Buyers and sellers alike said they are motivated for the

spring buying season, attracted by low mortgage rates, attractive home prices

and other factors.

Here are key survey findings:

MARKET ON THE MEND

77% of consumers feel confident about the housing market and property value recovery; a 4 point improvement from our year-end results and a 7 point increase over the same period a year ago.

This confidence is exceptionally high among Millennials (80%) and Generation X (79%) and in recovering residential real estate markets like the South (81%) and West (79%).

Favorability of the U.S. real estate market also has increased to 65%, it’s highest

level in a year.

However, Americans are cautious and 42% of those surveyed believe the housing recovery will be slow.

Ultimately, owning a home is still important to 96% of Americans and exceptionally important to Millennials (97%), Generation X (98%) and women (78%).

For those who’ve been watching market fluctuations in recent years, 74% of respondents say that interest rates are historically low and 87% say the time to buy is now while mortgage rates and average home prices are attractive.

SPRING BUYING SEASON

Finding a good deal in a home (80%) and job stability (59%) are the most important factors for prospective homebuyers this spring.

Respondents who feel it will be easier to buy a home this spring feel that way because market conditions are right and “homeowners want to sell.”

Prospective buyers are motivated; 48% of respondents said they are willing to explore neighborhoods they hadn’t previously considered to find their home.

Prospective home-sellers indicated that “finding the right house to buy first” and “making a profit” were the primary reasons they would list their homes this spring.

87% of sellers are committed to seeing a sale through if their home doesn’t sell quickly.

67% of sellers are open to additional guidance from their broker/agent on how to better market their home.

62% of sellers are willing to make repairs or redecorate in order to attract more interest

in their properties.

CONTEMPLATORS

“Contemplators” are defined in the survey as those who have considered buying or selling real estate in the past year but didn’t. Contemplator confidence in the real estate market and property values continues to rise with a 12 point increase from mid-2012.

Additionally, contemplator favorability of the real estate market has jumped 10 percentage points since mid-2012.

Primary reasons why contemplators haven’t made a move include “waiting for the right opportunity” and “haven’t found the right home.” 

Also included is an infograph illustrating the results of the survey.  The following infograph doesn't appear very large on my blog, however, I am posting the original size one on our Facebook Page.  It can be found in the upper right hand corner of this blog post.  "Like" us and be kept up to date on the real estate market here in Alaska.  You can also go directly to it at Greg's Facebook business page

Based on the results of the survey, it appears more and more that the housing recovery that we are experiencing may be gaining more and more traction!

Will 2013 be the year of the real estate recovery?  Here in Alaska, I absolutely believe so...and more of the lower 48 is feeling that way too.

With it staying light now until nearly 11PM there is plenty of time to shop after work!

Greg

$30,000 in Relocation Assistance From Some Lenders

The Brainerd Lakes area of Minnesota was an area that was hit extremely hard by the bursting of the real estate bubble starting in 2006.  As such, many home sellers found that the equity in their homes was suddenly gone and due to new financial hardships were not in an equity position to sell...meaning that they owed more on the property than what it was worth in the current market.  "Underwater", "Upside down" were terms that often described the situation.

In the years that followed, we began a relationship with Markve and Zweifel, PLLC, a law firm in Minneapolis that specialized in assisting sellers through the process of short sales, and worked with the banks to negotiate a sale by which the seller of the property could still sell, but sell short.  Meaning that the bank would accept the current market value of the property and the difference between current market value and the mortgage COULD be exempt from deficiency judgements under a law passed in congress.  That law was set to expire on December 31, 2012, but was extended one more year.

Although we are no longer selling real estate in Minnesota, I still keep abreast of the market back there and Markve and Zweifel's practice.  The following link is to their blog and contains some of the current offerings that some of the lenders have available.  http://www.mzlaw.us/pages/Blog/  These offerings change frequently and what is offered today, may not be offered tomorrow.

While the "short sale" real estate market in Alaska pales in comparison to Minnesota's, there is a need to get the information out there.  Having been through the process and professionally trained, I have the skills to help those sellers in need of help get through a very difficult period in their lives.

With the new deadline only just a few short months away, teamed with the short sale process taking longer than a traditional sale, the time is now to have a consultation to see if a short sale is the right answer.  If you live in Minnesota and aren't sure who to call, let me know and I will direct you to a professional REALTOR that can help you based on your location.

Feel free to "Like"our Facebook page at the right or at www.Facebook.com/AKHomeSellers to learn more about us and the services that we can offer.

I look forward to helping!

Greg

"But isn't it always dark in Alaska?"

It's one of the most common statements that I most often hear when talking to others about Alaska.  Many have been here in the summer and know how light it is then, but the majority of non-Alaskans think that it is dark for the other 6 months of the year.

After close to a week of clouds and snow, we had a break in the weather yesterday and the sun came out after the clouds moved on.  With us now gaining 6 minutes a day of light, it is a noticeable difference after not seeing the sun for a few days.  At 9:36PM, I took a photo of the backyard to illustrate how much light we have.  And as I watched the sunset off to the northwest and the last light of day diminished behind the Talkeetna Range at nearly 11PM, it seemed like the right time to set the record straight about our daylight in Alaska.

There are many people that would have an interest in buying real estate in Alaska and relocating here, but dismiss the idea due to the fear that the perceived lack of daylight would be more than they could handle.

Born and raised in west central Minnesota, we were subject to large swings in daylight from the solstice in December to the solstice in June.  It wouldn't get dark in June until after 10PM!  We are way past that already...and it is the beginning of April.

After living here through a couple of winters now, I can absolutely say that there is less daylight per day here in the winter than in Minnesota.  But it is only for about 3 months...the remainder of the year we have so much more daylight per day than there.  A client mentioned the other day that we have 8 hours more daylight per day than we had in December...and she's right!  That's amazing when you think about it.

The following link is a reference to our current sunrise and sunset times.  http://www.timeanddate.com/worldclock/astronomy.html?n=18  Check it out and put in your location to see how you compare to here.

Have a good week and be careful if you are going out to Arctic Man!

Greg

The Matsu Valley Real Estate Market is at full swing

The market has hit full swing in the last couple of weeks now...and could be stronger yet with more inventory (homes for sale).  With the severe lack of inventory that is experienced in Anchorage, not only the buyers, but also the Anchorage and Eagle River real estate agents are coming out to the valley as well trying to find housing for their clients.  

The shortage appears to be in all segments, but in particular the $250-$400K range.  I am working closely with one buyer in particular that is in that range and we have exhausted every listing that fits their criteria in their preferred location and there just isn't anything.  If you know of a property that could be for sale in the Palmer area that is in that price range that could be for sale, call me asap.

With around 8 hours of more light per day than on the first day of winter, combined with temps in the 40's, we are absolutely fully into the busiest time of the year for selling real estate in Alaska!

Spring has sprung! 

The race is on!

Across many parts of the country, there is a severe shortage of inventory.  Stated differently, if you are a buyer coming into one of those markets, you will find that you will have to move fast, and often are faced with multiple offer transactions.  And that is absolutely the case in the Matsu and Anchorage Alaska real estate markets.

But why??

We've all been conditioned over the last 5-7 years to hear about how bad the housing market is, and we a nation have literally seen trillions of dollars of equity evaporate as home prices fell like a brick in most places across the country. With "For Sale" signs on every other home then (it seemed) they are now suddenly gone...

But why??

Here is what I think is going on...

The market has begun to recover nationally and as such, a couple of things are coming into play that are facilitating the changes that we are currently seeing.  I think that first and foremost, the largest wave of foreclosed properties AKA Real Estate Owned (REO) has cleared the market.  And although there are still more to come, the volume of them appears to be fewer than the glut that we just went through.  The reason for that is quite simple and has to do with the timing of when most of those properties were sold and more importantly, how they were financed.

As most real estate markets across the country boomed in the late 90's and early 00's there was almost a hysterical level of buying frenzy...values were skyrocketing as a result of liberal lending programs that put many buyers into homes before they could have been just a few years prior.  "No-Doc", "Stated Income" et al were commonplace and when teamed with 3-1 and 5-1 Adjustable Rate Loans, Interest Only Loans etc. etc. etc. it was like throwing gas on a brush fire.  Millions of homes were sold during that period...more than any other time in our nation's history.

And then the adjustable mortgages started to adjust...

And home owners were faced with dramatically increased payments.  For example if a home buyer purchased a $250,000 home using a 3-1 ARM over a 30 year period with a fixed rate at 3.5% for the first 3 years with it set to adjust to market rate at the end of the 3 year period, saw their principal and interest portion of their loan go from $1,123/month to $1,580/month with a 6.5% rate.  An increase in their monthly payment of nearly 30%!!

So millions of decisions were made to put homes on the market across the country in order to get out from the increase in mortgage payments.

But it was too late....

As millions of other homeowners realized their dilemmas, the markets became flooded with homes that were purchased during the boom simultaneous with one another.  Ironically...these were the same homes that had buyers literally fighting over them just a few years earlier, to now fighting over whom could lower their prices lowest in order to try to attract a buyer.

And the bubble burst...

The banks started to foreclose on the properties and because they didn't even realize the depth of the problem, they too flooded the markets with their own REO inventory and in a sense were competing against themselves in a race to hit bottom.

And this is where we are today.

This morning Home Services CEO and former President of my former company, Edina Realty, was on Fox Business sharing some insight as to where the markets are currently at and what he predicts in the coming months.  Here is a link to that interview.  Interview with Home Services CEO Ron Peltier

It also is worth mentioning that at our weekly sales meeting the head of Alyeska Title indicated that they are doing a tremendous amount of refinance closings currently.  Someone else added that homeowners are trying to take advantage of the low interest rates that we currently have.

But I don't think that is the case.

My position is that this re-fi boom that they are currently experiencing has less to do with the low interest rates, but more so because prices are starting to recover enough so that homeowners have enough equity in their properties that they can now refinance that debt at the lower rates.  We have been at these rates for long enough to have been through the lion's share of homeowners that could actually refinance.

And as thousands of homeowners get out of negative equity positions (mortgage is higher than home is worth) we will see more refinance making it so their home is more affordable allowing them to stay in it, putting further downward pressure on inventories, making home values increase that much faster.

There is a lot of information contained in this, and if you have questions on how all of this can be used whether you are buying, selling or both, feel free to call and we can analyze your own personal situation and come up with a plan that is right for you.

Short Sales...What you need to know...before you make the leap

The National Association of REALTORS (NAR) recently published an article about short sales and how they can so easily fall apart.  The full article can be read here.  http://realtormag.realtor.org/daily-news/2012/10/31/why-short-sales-can-still-so-easily-fall-apart

Contrary to it's name, short sales do not equate to "short" as it relates to time.  They are called "short sales" because the current value of the property is not enough to cover the cost of the outstanding mortgage(s), expenses, etc. associated with selling the property in the current market.

The problem with the short sale market is that in a majority of the cases yet today, 5 years after the bubble burst, the banks are not cooperating at a level that they would like the public to believe they are.  Either it is in large part due to the investors not willing or unable to recognize that the values have adjusted that much lower.  Or that they are prepared to make a claim against the mortgage insurance, unless you put 20% cash down, there is mortgage insurance.  But the mortgage insurance companies are out of money to pay claims...and it makes it difficult if not impossible for the investors to recoup their losses.

This creates a conundrum in that the seller, under the advice and counsel of their agent race to get an offer accepted by lowering the price of the property in order to attract a buyer get an offer.  But then what??  In far too many cases, buyers so badly want the property at the low price that they are not being fully informed of the timeframes that are likely to be experienced to get to a closing...if ever.

It has been my experience that in the majority of cases, the buyers are so excited to think that they are going to get a property for a below market price that they agree to allow the bank time to respond to the dollar amount, but after a while grow impatient with the lack of response and eventually initiate a cancellation of the purchase agreement or refuse to extend the date by which the bank has to issue 3rd party approval.  Time after time, I see sellers attempting to sell via a short sale and time after time eventually see the property end up being foreclosed upon or Real Estate Owned (REO).  By their own numbers, banks realize a higher return by accepting a short sale offer vs. a foreclosure offer, but yet the situation is not getting any better.

If you as a buyer are in a position to wait for 6-12 months for property to obtain 3rd party approval to sell short, and are accepting of those timeframes all the while losing out on other opportunities to move on with your life, then short sales may be for you.  But if the prospect of having to wait that long, or never closing do not work with your life plans, then perhaps you should consider other properties.

The best way to determine the best route for you is to sit down with a professional REALTOR and have a candid, honest conversation as to what your needs are and then prepare a plan accordingly to make your goals become reality.

Rain, Rain Go Away

With all the rain that we have had lately, homes that have never had water issues suddenly are.  The ground is becoming very saturated and can't take a lot more...thus the path of least resistance may be into your basement or crawl space.  And the upcoming forecast is calling for more rain...
http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?zoneid=AKZ111 

Make sure that your gutters are clear and that your downspouts are long enough so that the rain water can get far enough away from the house.  If you have more water coming over the sides of your gutters than is coming out the downspouts, hire someone to come and clean them so that they are operating properly.

The added bonus to checking your gutters now is that winter is soon coming and if they aren't draining properly due to composting leaves and debris, they will fill with water and freeze soon contributing to ice dams.

Take a couple of minutes tonight to makes sure that things are as they should be.

Existing home sales numbers are out...and....

The August existing home sales report came out today and there is some reason to be somewhat happy.

Somewhat.

http://www.foxbusiness.com/industries/2012/09/19/existing-home-sales-leap-78-fastest-pace-since-may-2010/

The numbers went up almost 8% last month and the average national price went up by nearly 10%.  The number of homes that are estimated to sell this year is hovering around 4.8 million...that's a lot of homes.  But when that number is placed against the 7+ million that sold in 2005, it pales in comparison.  Granted the 2005 number was during the period when you could fog a mirror to get a mortgage.

Now we have record low interest rates and the housing affordability index, while not at the highest point in recorded history like it was in February of 2012, it is off the charts compared to its ranking in 2005 at the peak of the market.  So why isn't the US home market skyrocketing?  That's simple...it is the nation's jobless rate teamed with the tightening credit markets.  No job = No mortgage

The housing market will explode at such point as the nation's jobless numbers improve...and not the fractionally decreasing jobless number that we are currently witnessing as that number declining is more a result of workers dropping out of the workforce and no longer being counted.  Not as a result of the type of job creations that are necessary to drop that number.

In watching the extracurricular activities in the middle east over the last week, it has become perfectly clear that we as a country need to become energy independent once and for all.  No more idol chatter...

We currently import roughly 9 million barrels of foreign oil each day.  At approximately $100/barrel that is nearly a billion dollars a day that we are losing in foreign trade.  What would happen if that production came domestically?  And what would the resulting effect be on the US economy?  It is staggering to even comprehend.  The amount of US jobs that would be created would immediately have a positive influence on the overall economy.  With nearly a billion dollars a day leaving our border, with much of it going to countries that are not pro-USA, it would go a long way to not only solving our own energy shortfall, but go a long way toward solving our nation's debt crisis while pulling the economic "rug" out from under those countries that do not like us.

The nation's housing crisis would also improve within a matter of about 3 years as excess inventory was absorbed and the market begin to experience an appreciatory period as a result of declining supply.  Many have said that an increase in the housing market and new home starts will stimulate job growth to take our country out of a recession.  And while that may have been true in the past, the current housing recovery will only truly come as a result of job growth first, and not due to an artificially declining jobless rate.

And that is not presently on the radar.

Can you help reunite items found with the owner?

Everyone, I need your help....

We recently were up at Hatcher Pass picking blueberries and found an SD card for a camera along with a battery for some kind of camera.  Perhaps you know who might have lost them.  If so, give a call at (907)352-1828 if you can help reunite them with the rightful owner.  I checked the card to see if there was any pictures on there that might help in identifying who the owner might be, but it was empty.

Hope to get these back to whomever lost them.

Have a good week,

Greg

January Case Shiller Report..."Survey says?!"

It is that time of the month again...  The Case Shiller report is released on the last Tuesday of the month and is eagerly anticipated by Wall Street as well as other industries that are tied to the housing market to shed some light on the market.  I have previously posted the Case Shiller report and the data that it tracks.  You can find that from about a month ago on my blog at www.GregShepard.com. 

There is some good news contained in the report this morning...but you better have a good magnifying glass in order to spot it.  http://www.standardandpoors.com/indices/sp-case-shiller-home-price-indices/en/us/?indexId=spusa-cashpidff--p-us----

Watching Robert Shiller this morning on television, he really didn't want to get painted in to a corner by declaring the market is improving or if it still had room to decline.  Here is a link to the video of his interview.  http://video.foxbusiness.com/v/1532717612001/yales-shiller-unsure-about-future-of-housing/?playlist_id=87061

If you watch Mr. Shiller's interview, and have watched some of his others, you will notice that he looked very uncomfortable this morning.  It almost seemed like he knew something, but didn't want to expound on it much.  

There are some other reports out this morning by the national home builders that their new housing starts are on the rise...which reminds all of us that this information is comprised of composites, and does not encompass all markets.  The "800 pound gorilla in the room" will be the confusion in the unemployment rate.  If it truly is dropping as we are told, why isn't the housing market getting better?  And if it is truly dropping as we are told, why aren't income tax receipts to the federal government increasing?  Could it be that the unemployment rate is being manipulated for political gain and isn't actually dropping as a result of a new hires?    

As the quote from the old Virginia coal miner goes, "No matter how thin I try to make my pancakes, they always end up having two sides.", so go the reports today.

Pick whichever side of this debate that you wish...and the reality of it is, you will pick the winning side however you so choose.

The 10 year U.S. Treasury Notes have been increasingly more volatile over the last couple of weeks as those European countries with the most serious deficit issues grapple over their financial futures.  One day the situation seems to be moving toward an amicable solution and the 10 year T-Bill goes up, and the next day the situation seems to heading toward a meltdown and the 10 T-Bill goes down as the world markets look to the "stability" of the U.S. 10 T-Bill.  There is an oxymoron if there was ever one in the current financial market!

The good news to report in this is that the Alaska Real Estate Market has been very stable compared to other parts of the country.  Growth, although somewhat slower, is still occurring.  Unemployment statewide dropped again, and the outlook for the Mat-Su borough remains very positive through it all.

Having witnessed the complete and utter collapse of an economy and a real estate market over the course of the last 6 years in the Brainerd Lakes Area in Minnesota, witnessing life again has been one of the more difficult things to adjust to.  Over the course of 3,168 miles and 5 days in a 26' U-Haul Time Machine, it is though we were sent back to Brainerd in 1996.  Back to when the infrastructure wasn't equipped to handle the burgeoning traffic, when the businesses were facing labor deficits and it was the model of economic growth.

When were packing to leave, Sherri found an article out of the Brainerd Dispatch from January 2000.  The biggest fear that they faced then?  With around a 3% unemployment, area businesses didn't know how they would be able to attract employees to the Brainerd area!  It has now had the state's highest unemployment rate for cities over 10,000 people for over 4 years with unemployment rates ranging from around 11 to the low 20s percent.

It is inconceivable that the Brainerd area could deteriorate that fast.  Over the course of just 7 years, it went from first to worst.  No one could have ever predicted that dramatic of a change that fast...and the resulting carnage will likely take a generation (or more) to recover from.

I wasn't raised a quitter...but I wasn't raised to be an idiot either.

The "quitter" side ultimately won.

Come on global warming!!!  We are tired of driving on "glaciers" on the side roads....

Greg    

      

2012 Employment Outlook in Alaska (not to spoil it for you...but it looks good)

"Pay no attention to the man behind the curtain" is one of my favorite quotes from the Wizard of Oz.  As you all recall, that was during the scene when the "Wizard" didn't want Dorothy and the rest of her gang to know that the "Wizard" really wasn't who they thought he was.

The same, it seems, describes how the economic recovery is progressing.  To be certain, there is some encouraging signs in the United State's economic recovery, but it is far from complete or as much as "the man behind the curtain" would like us to believe.  

After having the distinct privilege of attending a meeting this morning where Alaska Department of Labor Economist Neal Fried spoke.  It only reaffirmed my opinion of Alaska's economic climate and what the future holds here.  Since the economic collapse in 2008 there are only 3 states that have had an increase in nonfarm payroll employment.  They are Alaska, Texas and North Dakota.

Neal also addressed growth in the state, and once again, only reaffirmed that why the Mat-Su Valley is the place to be.  The amount of data that was shared this morning was nothing short of extraordinary.  While the "man behind the curtain" continues to tell us how well the national economy is recovering, there isn't sufficient data to support that claim.  Neal's data is spot on and tells a much more accurate story.

Each month, the Alaska Department of Labor publishes a magazine called Alaska Economic Trends.  The following link will take you to the January issue that covers the 2012 Employment Forecast.  http://labor.alaska.gov/trends/jan12.pdf  The complete catalog of the reports can be found on the Alaska Department of Labor's website here.  http://labor.alaska.gov/trends/

There are a wide variety of topics that are covered in these and served as an invaluable tool when we ourselves were contemplating moving here.  We all hear about the $8 gallon of milk in Alaska etc. etc. and this was a topic that was covered in the May 2011 issue that addressed the cost of living in Alaska.  http://labor.alaska.gov/trends/may11.pdf

Many of you are going to be reading this from "outside", (aka "lower 48ers") and are living through struggling economies where you are at and are contemplating relocation.  I encourage you to do your research, and determine for yourself where the best place for you should be.  North Dakota is experiencing a tremendous period of growth at the moment, but having good friends that have went to work out there, they love the paychecks, but can't wait to leave at the end of their stints.  That works for some, but not for all.

Attending Neal's report this morning was good for my soul...not only was it so positive compared to the national numbers, but the meeting was held at the Elk's Lodge in Palmer/Wasilla.  The lodge sits on the north shore of Finger Lake and featured views the likes of which you would assume were paintings on the wall where there should be windows.  Clearly not the kind of place that you can't wait leave at the end of your stint.

For most, Alaska is a place that you never want to leave...  At first, most didn't want to leave because of the extreme beauty, but anymore it is increasingly due to the economic health of the state.

Enjoy the Aurora tonight...the forecast is for a really big show!

Greg

The sky is falling, the sky is falling!! Or is it?

About 6 years ago, I started to pay much more attention to the Case Shiller Home Price Indices.  Something was going on in the local real estate market and it was unclear what it was.

As most of you read this, you have probably already subliminally heard at some point throughout the day that the home prices have fallen...again....  If you have had the radio on, or the news this morning, you may have heard it, but may not have paid attention to it.  

The Case Shiller report is a compilation of home sales data covering 20 cities across the U.S. and is produced monthly.  It is released on the last Tuesday of the month and is created by using data that ended 2 months prior.  More on the Index here.  http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Case%E2%80%93Shiller_index  Meaning that today's Case Shiller report is based on the data for the housing sales that ended in December 2011.  This means that we all get an overview of what happened in the home sales arena in 2011...like we didn't already know...

But something that needs to be kept in perspective is that the report is based on 20 cities averages across the country.  20 cities!  This is to the housing market what the Dow Jones Industrial Average is to the stock market. It is a snapshot of 30 companies and what is happening with their values.  And that is all that it is...it is an average.  It does provide some insight as to what is happening on a "big picture" scale, but doesn't provide accurate analysis on all companies.  Stated differently, if the Dow Jones is down 200 points, it doesn't mean that all companies have lost value that day.

Robert Shiller was on Fox Business this morning and had some interesting things to say.  And feels that the best thing to have a recovery in the housing market is to have an improvement in the job market.  Bravo, Mr. Shiller, Bravo!!  http://video.foxbusiness.com/v/1478831038001/shiller-could-be-housing-downtrend-for-5-10-more-years/?playlist_id=87247 

The same is true about the housing market.  Just because the Case Shiller Index showed a drop for the year end in 2011, it can not indicate that all cities have declined.  And even if a city has had a decline, there are going to be pockets that are not going to follow the trend line within the city and can vary wildly.  Townhomes vs. Single Family or low end vs. high end.  Neighborhoods within a city can even differ greatly.  

Every so often, the Dow  Jones Industrial Average occasionally will "delist" a company that they no longer feel is relevant to the financial world.  And in my opinion, there should either be an increase in the cities contained in the Case Shiller Index, or there should be some that are delisted.  Just like their stock market cousins, they are no longer relevant in the overview of the housing market.  Eastman Kodak was a "Blue Chip" company for 74 years before it was delisted in 2004.  When that occurs to a company...the future is not looking bright for the employees, or the stockholders of it.  Cities are the same way unfortunately....

There are cities that are not included in the Case Shiller list that ought to be included.  Cities like Anchorage, AK should be one of them.  The real estate market here is stable and didn't go through the wild gyrations that others experienced.  It also has a progressive plan for the future over the next 20 years and as such, would provide a "ray of sunshine" in an otherwise very depressing report from Case Shiller.

Kind of thought that this would be a good day to shed some light on that subject.  Hope that it helps!

Have a good Leap Day tomorrow!

Greg

  

Which Remodeling Projects Pay Off the Most?

This is one of the most commonly asked questions that I get this time of year when homeowners contemplate which home improvement projects they are thinking of tackling.  

If you are interested in knowing which ones are best, drop a note or give a call and we can discuss it in detail as the answer(s) might surprise you.  Keep in mind that there is a big difference between making your home more "salable" and making it more "valuable".  The best way is to spend some time together at your home so that we can, together, decide which items make the most sense given the competitive market that you will be in should you decide to list your home.

The spring listing season has rapidly come upon us, and the buyers seem to have more of a sense of urgency this year than they have in years...that is not to imply that we are at the "silliness" level that was experienced 5-8 years ago.  With that said, it is more important than ever to prepare a carefully thought out plan as to what should be done to attract buyers to your home over the others that are currently for sale.  The winners in the market today understand that in order to "win" that it is part "beauty contest" and part "pricing war".  As the local real estate market recovers, inventory levels will drop with an appreciatory period slightly behind.  In my opinion, that is where we are right now.

Something that I am also monitoring is the ratio of renters to owners, and why there is such a high level of renters right now.  It would appear that many of the current renters are doing so as a result of a blip in their credit, and are now waiting for their past situation to clear allowing them to then enter back into the market as homeowners.  Based on extensive research, it appears that we should be coming into a period where many of them will be able to buy again as well.  This will only add to the pressure on existing inventories and accelerate the time frame to the aforementioned appreciatory period that is expected.  Barring any unexpected change in the world markets, I think that we are closer to the end of the "buyers" market in Alaska than what is currently being reported on a National level.  Here is a story from the National Association of REALTORS that illustrates that point.  http://www.realtor.org/press_room/news_releases/2012/01/phs_dec

I will continue to monitor all of the factors that have a bearing on the local real estate market so that when the need arises, be able to provide a superior level of counsel so that you can make an informed, educated decision based on that research.

With the amount of snow that we have received in the Mat-Su Valley, the moose have been forced out of their normal wintering grounds and are out in record numbers by the roads.  The amount of car-moose hits has already surpassed last year's year end count as a result.

Until next time...watch out for moose along the road and drive safe!

Greg

-30 temps...so what?!

Last weekend I had the pleasure of hosting a couple of new construction homes in "The Ranch".  The temperatures were around -30F both days, but the skies were clear and the sun was out.  It was a mini "Parade of Homes" and it was a very successful event by all counts.

Part of the appeal of living in Alaska is the opportunity to meet some terrific people.  Many of the attendees are current military personal and you will gain a sense of sincere appreciation for them and their efforts.

It is always a joy to listen to their stories about where they came from, and how much they enjoy it here.  Many have decided that even if they are ordered to go elsewhere, the overwhelming majority have decided that once they retire, that Alaska will be their permanent home.

One of the licensees in the office has some clients that she has gotten to know have now retired from the military, but before they decided that Alaska was where they wanted to spend the rest of their days, they took a 4 month tour of the lower 48 to see if there was somewhere that they would rather be.  Up and down the west coast, to Arizona and all the way to Pennsylvania spending a few days in each area to get a "feel" for the area and to see if they would enjoy it there better.  The result?  They are on their way back to make Alaska their home...and this time for good.

When they spent time in the different areas there was always something that they didn't like.  Bear in mind they are retired and have military pensions, so finding a job wasn't important.  But what they found was that even though they could buy a home for far less than they could here, being in a dying city didn't feel right to them regardless as to what they could buy a home for.

We have been very fortunate to meet some extraordinary people and are surprised at their generosity.  For example, on Saturday I met a military couple that have moved here from Oklahoma.  He is an avid hunter and it was fascinating listening to his hunting stories of his trips here.  He was recently out to Adak on a successful caribou hunt.  Did you know that a bull caribou on Adak can reach 700 pounds?  About an hour after they left the home that I was holding open, he returned and asked if I would be interested in trying some of the caribou that he had processed.  Of course I was very interested so we went out to the truck and he gave me a sample of caribou burger and package of hot polish sausage.  It has been kind of busy since the weekend, and we haven't had a chance to try it yet, but hope to later this week.

Another couple that came (also military) are close to retiring and they had a great story as well.  She recently was hired by Knight's Taxidermy (of The History Channel's hit show "Mounted in Alaska") to be a "rugger".  http://www.knightstaxidermy.com/  If you have a hide that you want to have a rug made out of, there is a good chance that she will be the one to do it.  And has at least year's worth of work ahead of her!  

Although there are far more people here, it never ceases to amaze how close knit the community is.  And how many things there are to do here.  It is going to be an interesting 2012!

Throw another log on the fire and keep an eye out for the Aurora!

Until next time...

Greg

What do you mean no Wikipedia today?

I tried to "Wiki" something today, but see that they are on "strike", so to speak.  There was a hot link to their "side" of the argument.  http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wikipedia:SOPA_initiative/Learn_more  And it brought up some valid points...just as the other side undoubtedly has their valid points.

Unfortunately, I haven't really paid much attention to their battle as it has not, until today, made any difference.  But this now has caught my attention, as it has no doubt caught millions of American's attention today.  And as so often is the case now that the grey hairs outnumber the others, I tend to see both sides.  Years ago I heard a quote that has stuck with me ever since.  And it was the story about an old Virginia coal miner that said that no matter how thin he made his pancakes, they always ended up having two sides.

If you allow yourself to only hear one side of any argument, it is easy to be swayed that direction.  But invariably there are two sides.  And if you heard the other side of the argument first, that would sway you in that direction as well.

It is kind of like going for a ride in a canoe....The goal to going for a ride in a canoe is to stay as close to the middle as you can.  If you lean too far one way, you will wildly flap your arms in order to correct your balance.  And all too often, you will tend to go too far the other way after the correction....with the process often then repeating itself.  "Been there, done that" on a canoe ride with Dad years ago in northern Minnesota on Halloween evening trying to bow hunt for whitetail deer in a river that always had deer hanging out on either side in the red willows...but that is a story for another time.  Suffice it to say, we got our knuckles wet on each side of the canoe while trying to "shoot" a beaver dam and the subsequent wildly flapping arms.  With ice forming on the canoe paddles as we went, you get an idea as to how bad that would have been to go for a swim.

The point is this...It wouldn't be necessary to wildly flap your arms in corrective measures if you had not gotten so far to one side to begin with.  Staying in the middle the entire time would have resulted in a much more stable ride without the extremes.  Alaska is no different than any of the other states.  The Anchorage Daily News has a story today about the 2012 legislative session beginning.  One of the main topics is of course the ACES tax on oil corporation's profits.  But as was the case last year...both sides of the AK Senate seem to have their knuckles deeply in the water on their respective side and are comfortable going for their canoe ride that way.    

The same principal applies to many things...The financial market, the housing market, and many of these types of "causes" that the government decides to referee.  But there is always a cause and effect dynamic.  And all too often, decisions are rushed into before all the facts are reviewed without prejudice.

My industry would no doubt go through substantial gyrations in the event that the feed of our data was elected to be shut off.  Where would consumers go if they wanted to get information on a variety of listings?  With the amount of clearinghouses for our information increasing exponentially from where we first began 15 years ago with the introduction of REALTOR.com, there are increasing cases of fraud, and identity theft as "opportunists" see a means of scamming the public.  Particularly so here in Alaska.  The very nature of Alaska real estate is such that it is remote...and the only way that many people have to access information here is online.  But if the data becomes restricted as a result of SOPA/PIPA then what?  Fly up every time there is a new listing that would work for them?  It isn't practical...but may become necessary in the event that congress becomes involved in the matter and passes the legislation.

I don't know where I am at on the matter...and if forced to "vote" on such a measure, don't know if it would be possible only really having heard one side of the argument so far.

And by tomorrow, it will all be back to normal....or will it?

Greg